With the 2022 college football season winding down the opportunities to beat the house on under the radar picks are dwindling. And the house is probably excited about that after I had another winning week hitting two of three games for a third straight weekend. Overall I’ve hit on over 56 percent of my picks keeping me in the black. The goal is to win more than you lose and a nice run has put me in a good position heading into the final weeks of the campaign. That doesn’t mean I can take my foot off the gas and I won’t as I look for more under the radar winners in Week 12 of the college football schedule.
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My two Week 11 winners could have gone either way and the loss was a no-doubter, so there were some anxious moments on Saturday. Backing the UNDER in the UNC-Wake Forest encounter didn’t look good when the teams combined for 67 of the 76.5 points through three quarters. The points dried up over the final 15 minutes with a UNC field goal late in the frame the only points giving me and the Heels a victory.
It took a half before SMU woke up in its contest with USF. Backing the Mustangs -17.5 looked shaky with the game tied at halftime. SMU tacked on three touchdowns in the third and a field goal in the fourth, but it came down to USF’s 2-point try after a touchdown with less than two minutes to play. The Bulls were unsuccessful and we escaped covering the line by half a point in SMU’s 41-23 victory showing how fine the line is between winning and losing.
I expected a better showing from Northwestern in its Big Ten confrontation with Minnesota, especially after the Wildcats played Ohio State so close the previous game. Turns out it wasn’t to be as the lack of offense again proved fatal in NU’s 31-3 setback. Even the 17.5-points weren’t enough as the Wildcats were thoroughly dominated. You can’t have blinders on when wagering on college football so off they come as I look for more under the radar winners in Week 12.
Duke Blue Devils ( +7.5 ) at Pitt Panthers
I find myself back in the ACC for this matchup backing the Blue Devils at +7.5. No matter how hard the school tries and the success the football program has, Duke will always be known as a basketball school. The boys on the gridiron are doing their best to change the narrative putting together one of the finest seasons in program history. Duke won a third straight beating Virginia Tech last week behind a defense that’s been stout all season. Toss in the play of QB Riley Leonard and the Dookies have a wonderfully balanced squad that’s given opponents fits. There have been several firsts for Duke this season and they can add their first win over Pitt since 2014 to the list.
Iowa Hawkeyes at Minnesota Golden Gophers ( U 33 )
I don’t know where the line is drawn on point totals, but you won’t likely see a number lower than what we’ve got for this Big Ten matchup. Their offensive woes have become comical this season, but the Hawkeyes have actually scored at least 24 points in each of their last three games and face a Gophers offense that is more than capable of scoring. The teams combined for more than 40 points in each of the last four meetings while averaging better than 50 points between them in that span. Making the OVER an even better pick is the fact that Minnesota could have starter Tanner Morgan behind center. He missed last week’s game allowing Mohamed Ibrahim to carry the load with 178 yards and three touchdowns on the ground.
San Jose State Spartans at Utah State Aggies ( +3 )
Turning things around after an awful start to the campaign the Aggies reached .500 winning four of their last five games. And they’ve had San Jose State’s number over the years making them plus the points a solid bet. San Jose State is 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS in its last four games when laying points and they haven’t beaten the Aggies since 2008 going 0-9 SU and 1-8 ATS in that span. The Spartans are having a decent season becoming bowl eligible a few weeks ago, but they’ve had a hard time when playing on the road as a favorite falling to Fresno State and San Diego State. And they barely got by FCS Portland State 21-17 as a 22-point favorite in the season opener.
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