Last week’s under the radar picks highlighted an important factor when betting on college football. I backed Bowling Green at Mississippi State when the Falcons were +30.5 on the line. By kickoff the number was wagered up an additional point to +31.5. Just in case you don’t think a point matters, this game is all you have to see. Mississippi State won 45-14, which if you do the math is a 31-point margin. So, accepting line changes in your favor or just waiting to place a bet can make all the difference. It helped me to an undefeated week replenishing the bank roll.
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As we reach Week 5 of the college football season we start to see teams get into the meat of their conference schedule. And the cream of the college football crop remains at the top of the national rankings. A few of the best had a close call in Week 4. Playing as a 44.5-point favorite No. 1 Georgia allowed more points in their 39-22 win over Kent State then they did in their first three games combined. Clemson remained unbeaten with an overtime win over Wake Forest while USC beat Oregon State by a field goal.
The focus of my under the radar picks is to highlight games that oddsmakers might overlook or take advantage of a spread or total that doesn’t seem right. And it’s been a good start to the season with a record of 9-3. However, like many teams and players a slump can happen, though that’s not my intention. The winners are out there we just have to dig a little deeper. So let’s move ahead to our Week 5 under the radar picks to see where we can win some coin.
Utah State Aggies at BYU Cougars ( -24 )
We’ll get started early with a Thursday night matchup in the Beehive state. I have to say I was a little perplexed when I saw this line. Sure 24 points is a lot, but comparing the clubs has me leaning toward BYU. First, Utah State isn’t very good and now that we’re four games into the season that’s a fair assessment. One thing you can’t measure is emotion and there will be plenty for this in-state battle. And it’s more of an issue now that the series will go on hiatus after this matchup with BYU losing scheduling flexibility with the pending move to the Big 12. Jaren Hall threw for over 300 yards in each of his last two games with six TDs and no interceptions. The Cougars boast a potent offense that can and likely will exploit Utah State’s weak defense. The Aggies gave up 55 points to Alabama and were scorched for 35 points in a humbling loss to FCS Weber State a few weeks ago. That’s not a good look.
Florida International Panthers at New Mexico State Aggies ( O/U 54.5 )
One thing we can say with certainty is these teams are not good defensively. The total is as low as it is because they are equally bad on offense. I’m not picking on teams named the Aggies, though it might seem like it. It just worked out that way. NMSU hung 45 on Hawai’i last week giving me hope the OVER is the right play. They entered that game averaging just 8.0 points. FIU allowed nearly 700 yards last week in a 73-0 loss to Western Kentucky and is one of the absolute worst defensive teams in the FBS. The Panthers yield 351 yards through the air and a total of 470 yards per game while conceding an average of 53 points. That number was a skewed by WKU but it’s not that far off since they also allowed FCS Bryant to amass 470 yards. I’ll back the OVER with a lot of confidence in this contest.
Virginia Cavaliers at Duke Blue Devils ( -2.5 )
Duke is trying hard to shed the label of being a basketball school and missed a chance last week with a loss at Kansas. With the Jayhawks vastly improved and unbeaten the 35-27 setback isn’t that bad. But as we all know winning is the only thing that matters. The Dookies did that in each of their first three games scoring at least 30 points. They have a good looking QB in Riley Leonard, who threw for 324 yards and a TD last week, and an offense that averages 461 total yards. UVA’s Brennan Armstrong is a highlight reel, but his inconsistent play and desire to take unnecessary risks hurts the club. As a result the offense isn’t nearly what it should be and backing the Blue Devils minus the points at home is a winner.
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