The Memphis Tigers are enjoying the best season in program history, but the season will end without the guy who led them to the lofty status. Mike Norvell was hired away from the Tigers and will not be on the sideline in the Cotton Bowl matchup with the Penn State Nittany Lions. Memphis earned the Group of Five spot in the New Year’s Six by winning the American Athletic Conference with a 12-1 overall record. Memphis is making its sixth straight bowl appearance but hasn’t won in the last four. Current college football odds have the Tigers as a 7-point underdog to break that skid. The 2019 Cotton Bowl Classic takes place on Saturday, December 28, 2019 at 12 p.m. ET from ATT Stadium. The game will air line on ESPN.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Memphis Tigers +7
Penn State Nittany Lions -7
Over/Under 59
Memphis vs. Penn State Odds Analysis
The Tigers were favored in every game during the regular season and will be playing as a dog for the first time since the 2018 AAC Championship when they were +1 against UCF. Penn State opened as a 7.5-point favorite with minor buyback moving the line to -7. The Nittany Lions are no strangers to being a favorite. They gave points in all but one game this year posting a 10-1 SU and 5-6 ATS record when giving points. This is likely an elevated line considering the bias against Group of Five teams. If the Power conferences had their way they wouldn’t invite a G5 school to take part in the big six. The total surfaced at 61 and the betting public apparently favors Penn State’s defense over the Memphis offense with the number tumbling to 59.
Memphis Odds
The Tigers hadn’t won more than 10 games as a major college program and they toppled that with a 12-win campaign that included the AAC title. The American was the best Group of Five conference this season with three teams ending the regular season nationally ranked and others joining the top-25 during the season. The Tigers had success against all of them winning all but one game. The only loss was a two-point nail-biter to an 8-win Temple squad. The Tigers failed to cover in their last two game, both against ranked Cincinnati, but still ended the season at 8-5 ATS.
With the eighth-ranked scoring offense the over was 8-5 during the season. Brady White spearheaded the attack that scored 40.5 points per game and amassed 480.7 yards per contest. White’s 3,560 yards were the ninth-most in the FBS and he had 33 touchdowns with just nine picks. A balanced attack gave teams in the AAC fits all season. The Tigers rank 26th through the air and 34th on the ground to place 10th in total yards at 480.7.
Penn State Odds
The Nittany Lions were included in the top four of the first CFP rankings after opening the season with eight straight wins. Hopes of a playoff berth were vanquished with a loss to Minnesota in Week 11 and the Big Ten East was a goner in a loss to Ohio State in Week 13. Penn State ended the regular season at 10-2 while going 6-6 ATS.
While Sean Clifford, Journey Brown and KJ Hamler sparked an offense that scored 34.3 points per game, the Nittany Lions were a defense-based club. They held Ohio State to a season-low point total in the 28-17 loss and allowed more than 21 points in a game just three times. Unfortunately those came in the biggest matchups of the season. Penn State featured the fifth-best run defense in the nation and ranked seventh in points per game allowed with only 14.1. PSU cashed the under in its last two games and played below the closing total in seven of their 12 games.
Key Trends
The under cashed in seven of Penn State’s last 10 games and only once in that span did they combine to go over the current total for this game of 59. Memphis had a strong season scoring the football, but are the defenses in the AAC comparable to what they are about to face on Saturday? Penn State got a boost from defensive end Yetur Gross-Matos, who elected to play despite declaring for the NFL draft. He led the team with 8.5 sacks and was a big reason for the Nittany Lions success. There is a good chance the teams play under the total of 59 on the college football betting line.
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