Just a few years ago the LSU Tigers were sitting atop the college football world as national champions. Now they’re playing to save the job of their head coach. Since that magical undefeated 2019 campaign the Tigers have been mediocre at best going 8-8. They’ve dropped their last two and will need an upset of the Florida Gators in a key SEC crossover game on Saturday to stay above .500. LSU has won two straight and three of the last four meetings between the teams, but the Tigers are a considerable 11.5-point underdog, the first time they’re catching points at home in the series since 2009.
This Week 7 college football matchup takes place on Saturday, October 16, 2021, at 12 p.m. ET at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, LA and will be televised on ESPN. College football odds are available at BookMaker.eu for this and every game this season.
College Football Betting Odds at BookMaker.eu
Florida Gators -11.5
LSU Tigers +11.5
Over/Under 60
Odds Analysis
The look-ahead line had Florida as a 5.5-point favorite, which seems like a gift now. Over the weekend oddsmakers set the line at UF -10 and we’ve seen a steady stream of action on the visitors pushing the line to UF -11.5. Last week’s results have a lot of folks flocking to Florida. The Gators rebounded from a loss to Kentucky by blanking Vanderbilt 42-0 to cover the 39-point closing spread. UF is 3-1 ATS over its last four games while playing below the total in its previous three. LSU gave up 28 second-half points and cratered to UK 42-21 as a 2-point road dog. The Tigers dropped to 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS. The total was wagered to 60 after hitting the board at 58.
Florida Gators
With their two losses coming in conference play to East Division leaders Georgia and Kentucky, repeating as division champs is all but out of the question. That doesn’t mean the Gators have nothing to play for. In fact, you could say they’ll be amped up even more for this contest against an LSU squad that has beaten them the last two times they played. UF was a whopping 23-point favorite last year and fell at home 37-34. That alone should be motivation.
We’ve seen a weird dynamic at quarterback this season with both Emory Jones and Anthony Richardson getting reps. An injury to Richardson a few weeks ago gave Jones separation and he exploded for his best game of the season in last week’s win over Vandy. He threw four TD passes completing 14 of 22 for 273 yards as the Gators piled up 479 yards.
We’ve also seen improvements on the defensive side. Florida allowed only 34 points total in the past three games doing enough to make winners of UNDER bettors each time. The Gators also held the Commodores to 287 total yards a week after limiting the explosive Kentucky offense to 224 total yards. Those are the two lowest totals against the Gators this season.
LSU Tigers
The bad news keeps piling up for Ed Orgeron and his squad. Mired in a two-game SU and ATS losing skid, the team learned of more damaging injuries. Already without All-American cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. the Tigers lost their other starter Eli Ricks to a shoulder injury. Ricks is done for the season while there is no timeframe on Stingley’s return. Those injuries will seriously impact a defense that’s struggled anyway. LSU surrenders over 387 yards and 26.2 points per game placing in the bottom half of the FBS rankings.
Injuries aren’t limited to the defensive side either. The Tigers have to score a lot of points to win and that will be more difficult now that leading receiver Kayshon Boutte is out for the year. Boutte entered last week as the national leader with nine touchdown receptions and has scored 13 times over his last eight games. That kind of production will be hard to replace.
Defending the pass is probably the second thing the LSU defense has to worry about. The Tigers allowed 330 yards on the ground to Kentucky and will face the nation’s third-best ground attack on Saturday. Maybe the troops can rally around their fallen teammates and use the Death Valley advantage to pull off the upset like last season.
Florida at LSU Prediction
There are always surprises in an SEC game between heated rivals. Things don’t look good for LSU with injuries and inconsistent play taking a toll. But Death Valley is always hard on opponents and I expect the Tigers to be geeked up for this game. LSU is 6-3-1 ATS in its last 10 as a home underdog and I’m liking the points.
BookMaker Pick: LSU Tigers +11.5 / UNDER 60
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