It’s not quite the Pac-12/SEC matchup most were hoping to see this bowl season, but the 2022 edition of the Las Vegas Bowl has a good one with the upstart Oregon State Beavers taking on the Florida Gators on Saturday. The Gators limp into this matchup having lost their last two games and a number of players to either injury or the transfer portal leaving them as a 10-point underdog on the college football betting line. The Beavers are enjoying one of their finest seasons with nine wins, including a dramatic comeback over rival Oregon in the annual Civil War contest a few weeks ago.
On Saturday, December 17, 2022, the Florida Gators play the Oregon State Beavers in the Las Vegas Bowl at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. Kickoff time is set for 2:30 p.m. ET with television coverage on ESPN.
Las Vegas Bowl Odds
Florida Gators +10
Oregon State Beavers -10
Total 53.5
Odds Analysis
Considering what the Gators are going through in terms of their roster ahead of this game, it’s not a surprise to see the spread move. Florida closed the season with back to back losses to Vandy as a 2-touchdown favorite and Florida State. Then a number of players hit the transfer portal or opted out for various reasons. As many as six starters could be out of the lineup helping push the line from Florida +7.5 to +10. The Beavers haven’t won double-digit games in a season since 2006 so there is plenty to play for.
And they’ve been one of the hottest teams during the second half of the campaign winning their last three games and six of seven. They’ve been a good bet this season as well with payouts in six straight games while going 10-2 ATS overall.
Florida Gators
The Gators topped the 30-point mark seven times during the regular season and averaged 31.8 points and 440.5 yards. Those numbers will be hard to reach against a strong OSU defense and because several key players won’t be in uniform. QB Anthony Richardson opted out to prepare for the NFL draft and with backup Jalen Kitna booted off the team after his recent arrest, the Gators turn to Ohio State transfer Jack Miller for his first collegiate start. Miller was slotted as the backup in fall camp, but a thumb injury that required surgery put him on the shelf. He played sparingly last year at Ohio State throwing just 14 passes in mop up duty.
“He’s been participating in practice for a number of weeks so he’s been through the prep for a game,” Billy Napier said. Two other starters – OL O’Cyrus Torrence and WR Justin Shorter – opted out while WR Xzavier Henderson is questionable due to injury taking nearly 1,000 combined receiving yards off the field. With the passing game thinned out the Gators must effectively run the ball. They rank 16th nationally averaging 213 yards with Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne combining for 1,532 yards on the ground. The Gators faded down the stretch dropping four of their final six games to go 6-6 SU and 7-5 ATS.
Oregon State Beavers
Closing the regular season in opposite fashion the Beavers went 6-1 SU over their last seven contests while covering the spread in each of their last six games. The only setback during that run was by three points, 24-21, at Washington in Week 10. In fact their three losses were to the top teams in the Pac-12 so I guess you could say OSU is the fourth-best team in the conference. They also dropped a 3-point decision to USC, 17-14, allowing a touchdown in the final two minutes to get denied the upset.
A strong ground game allowed the Beavers to control many of their opponents during the season. They averaged 200 yards running the football with Damien Marinez leading the way with 970 yards. He rushed for 103 yards on 15 carries against Oregon, his sixth straight 100-yard game, and peels of 6.1 yards per carry. Jam Griffin and Deshaun Fenwick also amassed over 440 yards each and the team scored 33 rushing touchdowns. Ben Gulbranson has been efficient since taking over QB1 completing 63.1 percent of his throws, but he struggled against Oregon going 6 of 13 for 60 yards with a pair of interceptions.
Florida vs. Oregon State Free Pick
I expect Florida to simplify the game plan with a revamped offense and we’re likely to see plenty of rush attempts by both sides giving value to the UNDER. Oregon State was affected less by the transfer rules and with plenty to play for in this magical season I expect the Beavers to put on a show. Their D has been sneaky good making it more difficult for the Gators which is why backing the Pac-12 in the matchup makes sense.
BookMaker Pick: UNDER 53.5
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