A game that looked like one not to miss before the season now looks like a potential rout, as the Florida State Seminoles visit the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on Saturday night on NBC. The Seminoles decided to hire Willie Taggart in the offseason and that hiring already looks like a mistake. The Seminoles have to win two of their last three games to make a bowl and that doesn’t seem likely. On the other side, the Fighting Irish just have to avoid looking past FSU to what looks like a tough game next week against Syracuse. Let’s look at this contest and live betting at BookMaker.eu.
This contest in Week 12 will take place on Saturday, November 10, 2018 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Notre Dame Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Notre Dame -17, O/U 54.5
Odds Analysis
The Fighting Irish are not a reliable team laying points, but how can you take a Florida State team coached by Taggart? The Seminoles are 3-6 ATS this season and just 1-3 ATS on the road. FSU is scoring about 24 points per game and giving up 30 point per game. They have gone over in three of their four road games.
Notre Dame is just 2-3 ATS at home, with four of the five going under the total. They are scoring about 34 points per game and giving up about 19 points per contest.
Matchup to Watch
If Florida State is going to be competitive they have to find some offense. Taggart has not even decided who will start at quarterback, as it will be either Deondre Francois or James Blackman. Last week it was Blackman making his first start in a 47-28 loss to NC State. He was 29-of-46 passing for 421 yards with four touchdowns and one interception. “I thought James did well,” Taggart said to the media, “I told you all at the beginning of the week I had no doubt that James would do a good job when he went in there. Same thing with James. I'm sure there were some plays that he would love to take back, but he's such a great competitor and I thought he did a good job of distributing the ball to a lot of different teammates.”
Taggart said that he hasn’t made up his mind on who will start this week. “We'll see. We'll see on Saturday,” Taggart said. “… [We’ve] got to go through the week and see how Deondre is doing and see how these guys are practicing throughout the week and we'll see on Saturday. We'll make that decision later in the week.”
Francois has completed 171 of 281 passes for 2,039 yards, 13 touchdowns and seven interceptions this season.
Key Stats
The Fighting Irish are led by quarterback Ian Book who is 152 of 204 for 1,824 yards, 15 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Running back Dexter Williams leads the way on the ground with 93 carries for 568 yards and 8 scores.
The Seminoles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. The Seminoles are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games in November. The Seminoles are 2-5-2 ATS in their last 9 road games. The Fighting Irish are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Fighting Irish are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games. The Fighting Irish are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 games in November.
Looking at the total, the Over is 5-1 in the Seminoles last 6 non-conference games. The Over is 4-1-1 in the Seminoles last 6 road games. The Over is 5-1 in Notre Dame’s last 6 non-conference games. The Under is 5-1 in Notre Dame’s last 6 home games.
Live Betting Preview
I want nothing to do with Florida State, as they are simply a poorly coached football team. The problem with taking Notre Dame is that they are a public team and overvalued. I will consider the Irish in live betting if FSU does anything early in this game or if the Irish struggle at any point in the contest. I also think it could be a high scoring game, so I will look to play the over in live betting.
College Football Odds: Notre Dame 42, Florida State 20
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