We’ve seen some doozies at the Holiday Bowl in the past and the matchup between Power Five schools should more than make up for the aptly named game being cancelled last year. They didn’t win their divisions or play for a conference championship, but the UCLA Bruins and North Carolina State Wolfpack both look to cap a successful season with a victory. The Bruins averaged nearly 50 points winning their final three games posting their most victories in a season in seven years. NC State won four of its last five games, including a 34-30 decision over rival North Carolina in the finale to put them a victory away from just the second 10-win season in program history. The Wolfpack are a slight 1-point favorite on the college football betting line.
The 2021 Holiday Bowl is slated for Tuesday, December 28, at 8 p.m. ET from Petco Park in San Diego, CA. The game will air on FOX.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
UCLA Bruins +1
NC State Wolfpack -1
Total 59.5
Odds Analysis
While the opening line of NC State -1 seems about right, the total appears to be low for a pair of teams that can score plenty of points. I would be inclined to jump on the OVER before that number goes up. The Pack scored at least 34 points in each of its last three games twice going over the 40-point mark while cashing the OVER all three times. The Bruins had the 16th highest scoring team in FBS with the OVER going 4-1 across their last five games. UCLA earned payouts in every game during its season ending three-game winning streak and was 8-4 ATS overall. NC State ended the regular season at 9-3 SU and 7-5 ATS.
UCLA Bruins
While the Bruins may have a more balanced and explosive offense, they make up for it by being weaker on the other side of the football. All four of their losses were to bowl eligible teams with those squads averaging 40 points. Fresno State, Arizona State and Utah all scored at least 40 points while Oregon was ‘held’ to 34. They definitely took advantage against some of the weaker teams scoring at least 30 points in nine games. They relied heavily on Michigan transfer Zach Charbonnet to average nearly 220 rushing yards per game and almost always found a way to put points on the board.
Charbonnet ran for 1,137 yards and 13 touchdowns with Brittain Brown adding 616 yards and seven scores as the Bruins ranked 12th nationally running the football. Dorian Thompson-Robinson was the ultimate dual threat quarterback accounting for over 3,000 total yards and 30 touchdowns. Defense was an issue, especially against tougher competition, and NC State has the weapons to do plenty of damage.
North Carolina State Wolfpack
Every team not competing for a national championship needs to find additional motivation wherever it can. For the Wolfpack that comes in the form of winning at least 10 games for only the second time in program history. They’ve been playing football in Raleigh for over 100 years and only once have the Pack hit double figures in wins. They did that back in 2002 going 11-3. They’ve been close under Dave Doeren hitting the nine-win mark three times, including this year.
NC State also possess a balanced offensive attack led by Devin Leary, who set a school record for passing yards in a season with five 300-yard games in his past six outings. He also threw 35 touchdown passes giving the Pack and edge in the matchup against UCLA’s secondary. The Bruins allowed over 260 yards a game through the air to rank 111th in the FBS. And don’t sleep on the NC State defense. The group allowed fewer than 20 points per game in a tough ACC schedule.
UCLA vs. North Carolina State Prediction
While I don’t think the Bruins will be completely shut down on offense and both teams will contribute to the OVER, they will face a tougher stop unit than they’ve seen since losing by 20 to Utah in Week 9. And the Bruins wilted against tougher competition allowing a bunch of points to teams that reached bowl eligibility. The Pack can do more damage on defense and Leary can pick apart the UCLA secondary leading to a cover win for NC State.
BookMaker Pick: NC State Wolfpack -1 / OVER 59.5
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