Since its introduction to the bowl lineup in 1978, the Holiday Bowl has traditionally been one of the most entertaining matchups. This year’s edition between the USC Trojans and Iowa Hawkeyes figures to be more of the same with representatives from the Pac-12 and Big Ten squaring off in Rose Bowl 2.0. Current college football odds have the Hawkeyes as a 2-point favorite to end a six-game overall losing skid against Troy. The 42nd Holiday Bowl kicks off at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, December 27 from SDCCU Stadium. The game airs live on FS1.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
USC Trojans +2
Iowa Hawkeyes -2
Over/Under 52
USC vs. Iowa Odds Analysis
Iowa hit the board as a 2.5-point favorite and the number was wagered down a half-point with slight support backing the team from just up I-5. We have contrasting styles in this one with USC’s high powered attack averaging 37.3 points per game over the final six contests where they went 5-1 SU. That also benefitted over bettors with the Trojans going over the closing total in their last five games. The total of 52 is a half-point drop from the opening number and the highest for a Hawkeyes game all season. They played below the total in six of their last eight games and the under was 8-3-1 during the regular season.
USC Odds
The Trojans finished the regular season winning three straight and five of their last six games to save Clay Helton’s job. They covered in their last two, beating UCLA, 52-35, as a 12.5-point favorite, and Cal, 41-17, as a 4-point favorite. Overall they went 6-5-1 ATS. When getting points on the closing line, USC wasn’t as fortunate going 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS. Their straight up win was a big one though, knocking off Utah at home in Week 4.
When J.T. Daniels went down with an injury early in the season, many thought the Trojans were done. That thought never crossed the mind of Kedon Slovis, who stepped in to lead the nation’s fifth-best passing attack by completing 71.8 percent of his passes for 3,242 yards with 28 touchdowns. It helps to have Michael Pittman Jr. on the receiving end of throws. Pittman finished the regular season as the Pac-12’s leader with 95 receptions and 1,222 yards along with 11 scores.
USC topped the 40-point mark in three of their final six games while averaging 37.3 points during that stretch. That allowed the Trojans to cash the over in their last five games while exceeding the point total in seven of 12 games overall. The team also extended offensive coordinator Graham Harrell, who played a major role in the development of Slovis after Daniels was lost in the opener.
Iowa Odds
It was a season of what might have been for the Hawkeyes, who were one of the most impressive three-loss teams in the country. Their lack of offensive firepower likely cost them in setbacks to Michigan, Penn State and Wisconsin where they scored an average of 12.3 points and lost all three by a combined 14 points. Just like SC, Iowa finished the season winning three straight and five of their last six games.
Iowa failed to cover in its last two games as a favorite against Nebraska and Illinois, and finished the regular season just 5-7 ATS. A stingy defense coupled with a pop-gun offense led to some low-scoring affairs and a favorable record of 8-3-1 on the under. Nobody scored more than 24 points against the Hawkeyes and they rank fifth nationally yielding 13.2 per game.
While the defense will have its moments against USC, the question is can Nate Stanley and the offense do enough to get a win. They did for most of the season to finish 9-3 SU but just 5-7 ATS. Iowa ranked 98th in total offense with 369.8 yards per game, and they were 99th with 23.8 points per outing.
Key Stats
Most football games come down to the play of the quarterbacks and Slovis and Stanley finished the year heading in opposite directions. Slovis capped his Pac-12 Freshman of the Year season throwing for 515 yards and four touchdowns against rival UCLA. Over his last three games he amassed 1,353 passing yards with four TDs in each game against one pick. Stanly struggled in his last two games completing less than 50 percent of his throws with no touchdowns and two picks. The Hawkeyes are favored on the college football betting line, but they’ll need to win this game on defense.
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