One thing about bowl season is that we get to see matchups we’ve never seen before. And it’s also a chance for the Group of Five programs to flex their muscles against teams from the Power conferences. That’s the situation in the Liberty Bowl when the Navy Midshipmen take on the Kansas State Wildcats. The Middies lost out on a trip to the American title game by losing to Memphis earlier in the year, but it was quite the turnaround going from three wins in 2018 to 10 this year and a national ranking. Navy is a 2.5-point favorite according to current college football odds. Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium hosts this game on Tuesday, December 31, 2019, at 3:45 p.m. ET. ESPN provides live coverage.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Navy Midshipmen -2.5
Kansas State Wildcats +2.5
Over/Under 52
Navy vs. Kansas State Odds Analysis
Oddsmakers had to see how the wagering was going to affect the line in this matchup and the public spoke. The Wildcats hit the board as a 2-point favorite likely because of their conference affiliation and 8-4 record. That trumped the Middies, who won 10 games while competing in what most consider a lesser league. The line jumped the fence not long after surfacing with Navy moving into the role of favorite at -2.5. It’s been just over two weeks since the Middies last played and it’s been over a month since K-State laced em up. The Wildcats need to avoid a slow start with so much time off between games. There’s been less volatility on the total with number at its opening of 52.
Navy Odds
Credit Ken Niumatalolo, his staff and players for bouncing back from a disastrous 2018 by enjoying the largest turnaround of any FBS team this season. The Middies capped a 10-win season by whipping rival Army, 31-7, covering the 11.5-point spread. Navy won and covered its last three games after losing at Notre Dame in Week 12. Their only other loss came early in the season to Memphis in a game that eventually decided the AAC West. Both teams finished with identical 7-1 records in league play but the Middies lost the tie-break. And Memphis ended the year at 12-1 earning an invite to a New Year’s Six game.
Don’t take Navy’s schedule lightly. They did lose to the two toughest teams but they also posted impressive victories over SMU and Air Force, a pair of 10-win, bowl-bound teams, and went 9-3 ATS. And the guy who got them there is Malcolm Perry, who orchestrated the top-ranked ground game in the FBS. Perry broke a number of program records and will be remembered for his 304-yard rushing game to beat Army. He finished with 1,804 rushing yards and 21 touchdowns for a team that averaged 363.8 yards per game. They don’t throw the ball often, but Perry is efficient when taking to the air averaging 23.9 yards per completion with six touchdowns.
Kansas State Odds
The Wildcats had a nice rebound season but it pales in comparison to that of Navy. K-State improved by three games from 2018 and handed Oklahoma its only loss with a 48-41 decision in Week 9 as a 23.5-point dog. The Cats also had a big win on the road against Mississippi State of the SEC. A brutal loss to West Virginia as a 14-point favorite in Week 12 could have been a disaster for the Cats. However, they responded by winning their final two over Texas Tech and Iowa State covering both times. They went 6-1 ATS over their last seven and they were a good bet over the season with a 9-3 ATS mark.
While they’re not as lethal as Navy running the football, the Wildcats use the ground game to their advantage. And they have a nice running option behind center in Skylar Thompson, who threw 12 touchdown passes and added another 10 on the ground while amassing 2,593 yards of total offense. The Wildcats scored nearly 31 points per game despite finishing last in the Big 12 and 106th nationally in passing offense. The X-factor could be Joshua Youngblood, who averaged 38.1 yards and with three touchdowns on 13 kickoff returns.
Key Trends
Both teams like to run the football and they are good at it. And they both stick to the game plan so don’t expect them to deviate unless the game gets completely out of hand. Thompson threw 283 passes during the regular season and completed only 59 percent. Navy’s dedication to the ground game was more pronounced not only by their rushing yards, but also by the number of passes. Perry had just 79 attempts all season, an average of just 6.6 per game, and he didn’t throw a pass against Army. Two ground heavy teams will definitely limit the number of possessions.
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