Coming off their first winning season since 2002 and their first bowl appearance and bowl victory since the JFK Administration, the New Mexico State Aggies were eager to get the 2018 season underway. So eager in fact that they opened the year with a pair of games in less than a week. The Aggies begin life as an independent after getting the boot from the Sun Belt. They are hanging around the FBS ranks to take on Power Five schools like the Minnesota Golden Gophers in Week 1, who they help initiate the new season.
Watch this Week 1 matchup live on Thursday, August 20, 2018, at 7 p.m. ET at TCF Bank Stadium. The game will be televised on the Big Ten Network.
NCAA Football Betting at BookMaker.eu
New Mexico State +17
Minnesota -17
Over/Under (Check Back Later)
Odds Analysis
With New Mexico State playing a Zero Week game, the total won’t come out until the first part of the week. But the early line has the Golden Gophers as a 17-point favorite. NMSU is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four matchups with Power 5 schools with the line closing at 18 or higher in each of those tilts.
Coaching Angle
P.J. Fleck was a hot coaching commodity after leading Western Michigan to an undefeated regular season, the MAC Championship and a New Year’s Six bowl game two seasons ago. His Broncos lost their Cotton Bowl matchup to Wisconsin, but Fleck was ready to cash in after four years transforming the WMU program.
There were plenty of suitors for Fleck, but the Gophers came away with the guy they wanted. The results in Year One weren’t what most expected, but Fleck inherited a team with many problems. And with Fleck’s history of turning programs around, the 2018 season looks to be better. His second season at WMU resulted in a 7-win improvement from his rookie campaign.
Matchup to Watch
The Gophers never did grasp Fleck’s offensive philosophy last season and they saw their bowl streak come to an end after winning five games. They managed just 22.1 points per game to rank 108th nationally, and they were particularly ineffective in the passing game, averaging only 126 yards per game. The quarterback situation remains unsettled with redshirt freshman Tanner Morgan the likely starter.
If the Gophers are looking to improve their pass attack, this might not be the team to do it against. The Aggies tied for fifth nationally in 2017 with 43 sacks and were second in sacks per game. And the scary part is eight starters from that group return. Former BC coach Frank Spaziani had his defense attacking from everywhere last year.
Letdown Spot
It’s hard to imagine a team having a letdown this early in the season, but the Aggies are primed to be a little taxed after opening the year with a Zero Week game against Mountain West Conference hopeful Wyoming. NMSU is the only FBS team to play a Week 1 Thursday game after opening the season just five days prior.
Schools use matchups against Power 5 teams to pad their budget, not because they think they can win. And New Mexico State hasn’t beaten one of the big boys in coach Doug Martin’s tenure. The Aggies are 0-11 SU against current P5 teams since 2013, but they have had success covering the usually high spread, going 4-6-1 ATS in that span, including a mark of 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games against P5 teams.
Free ATS Pick
It would be easy to give this one to Minnesota since they are the Big Ten school playing a team that was basically kicked out of the Sun Belt. There isn’t much history with the Aggies and anyone outside of the Southwest probably doesn’t even know they have a FBS squad. But they have plenty of talent, they are well coached, and they have nothing to lose.
Fleck was unable to get the Gophers offense going last season and the group is manned by a freshman who has yet to throw a pass at the FBS level. The backfield is a question mark and the line is rebuilding, which are all signs that this game is playing below the total. With better talent and a deeper roster, Minnesota will win this game, but it’s going to be much closer than people think. I believe the Aggies can cover despite playing their second game in less than a week.
NCAA Football Odds: Minnesota 26, New Mexico State 17
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