The only matchup between Top Five teams in Week 1 of the college football season will pit Notre Dame against Ohio State.
The Buckeyes are seen as national title contenders this season, while the Fighting Irish are expected to take a step back after Brian Kelly left for Baton Rouge.
CFB Week 1 Betting Odds
Notre Dame Fighting Irish +17.5
Ohio State Buckeyes -17.5
Total 59
Odds Analysis
There has been some decent line movement in favor of Ohio State in the days leading up to this game. The Buckeyes were originally a 15-point home favorite, but the sharps thought that wasn’t enough and pushed the line to where it currently rests at 17.5 points. This is a brutal first game for Marcus Freeman, as Ohio State might have the best offense in the country.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Tyler Buchner was finally named QB1 a few weeks ago. Buchner had consistently outperformed Drew Pyne throughout the summer, but Freeman didn’t make it official until August 13. While Buchner and Pyne had similar passing numbers in 2021 behind Jack Coan, it’s Buchner’s ability to make things happen with his legs that makes him stand out. Buchner was the second-leading rusher on Notre Dame last year behind Kyren Williams, picking up 336 rushing yards while averaging 7.3 YPC.
This will be a tough spot for Buchner though as Notre Dame loses a lot of its offensive talent from last season. Williams went to the NFL, so Chris Tyree and Logan Diggs will be the new starting running backs. The receivers don’t have a ton of experience, and that means Buchner will likely target tight end Michael Mayer often in this game. Mayer was one of the best tight ends in the nation last year with 71 receptions for 840 yards and seven touchdowns.
Notre Dame lost do-it-all safety Kyle Hamilton to the NFL Draft too, but the good news is that Isaiah Foskey returned for his senior season. Foskey had 11 sacks for the Irish last season, and he can disrupt things at the line of scrimmage. New head coach Marcus Freeman likes to be aggressive in the secondary, yet that might be disastrous if he pushes too much on Saturday night.
Ohio State Buckeyes
There are no less than three serious Heisman Trophy candidates on Ohio State’s offense. C.J. Stroud was one of the best quarterbacks in the country last season, completing 71.9% of his passes for 4,435 yards with 44 touchdowns and six interceptions. Some thought that he would just be a placeholder for the highly touted Quinn Ewers, but Stroud seized the job and is expected to be one of the first signal callers taken in the 2023 NFL Draft.
TreVeyon Henderson is probably the most explosive running back in the country. There was a lot of buzz surrounding Henderson as a true freshman prior to the start of the 2021 campaign, and he lived up to the hype by running for 1,248 yards and 15 touchdowns while averaging 6.8 YPC. Ohio State has a long tradition of Heisman Trophy winning running backs, but the school hasn’t had a running back win this honor since Eddie George.
Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave were both selected in the first 11 picks of the 2022 NFL Draft, but the receiving corps is still expected to be one of the best in the country. Jaxon Smith-Njigba outperformed both Wilson and Olave last year, catching 95 passes for 1,606 yards and nine touchdowns. Marvin Harrison Jr. is expected to boast big numbers this season too opposite Smith-Njigba.
The Buckeyes are hoping that their defense will be much better under new coordinator Jim Knowles. Ohio State hired him from Oklahoma State in the offseason, and this program should make the College Football Playoff if they have even an above average unit on this side of the ball.
Notre Dame at Ohio State Free Pick
It’s going to be tough for Notre Dame to stop Ohio State in this game. The Buckeyes should be able to score at least 40 points, making the ‘Over’ and Ohio State the top plays on Saturday night.
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