The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are unbeaten through their first three games, but they have looked shaky in each of those wins. They beat Florida State and Toledo by a field goal, and the Irish were only up four points on Purdue entering the fourth quarter last week. That has led to the oddsmakers making the Wisconsin Badgers close to a touchdown favorite per the college football betting odds against Notre Dame this weekend.
Historic Soldier Field in Chicago, Illinois will be the site of this anticipated Big Noon Saturday showdown on Saturday, September 25, 2021, at 12 p.m. ET on FOX.
College Football Betting Odds at BookMaker.eu
Notre Dame Fighting Irish +6
Wisconsin Badgers -6
Total 45.5
Notre Dame is fortunate to be 3-0 at this point of the season. The Fighting Irish needed overtime to beat winless Florida State in their season opener, and they trailed late against Toledo before squeaking out a victory. They had their hands full for most of their game against Purdue too, leading to many doubting them ahead of this game.
Wisconsin has had two weeks to prepare for Notre Dame. The Badgers lost a brutal season opener to Penn State as the result of some mistakes from Graham Mertz, but they bounced back with a comfortable victory over Eastern Michigan two weeks ago.
The main story ahead of this game is that Notre Dame quarterback Jack Coan will be facing his former team. Coan started for Wisconsin during the 2019 season, completing 69.6% of his passes for 2,727 yards (8.0 YPA) with 18 touchdowns and five interceptions. He didn’t play at all during the 2020 campaign due to injury, allowing highly recruited freshman Graham Mertz to take over.
Coan has posted solid numbers for the Irish this season. He is completing 63.3% of his passes for 828 yards with eight touchdowns and two interceptions, and he dropped some dimes in the win over FSU. That may have Wisconsin re-thinking its decision to stick with Mertz, as he has underwhelmed after a great debut.
Mertz lit the college football world on fire in leading Wisconsin to blowout wins over Illinois and Michigan in his first two starts as a freshman. However, he looked overwhelmed in his next five starts, throwing just two touchdown passes against five interceptions and didn’t throw for more than 230 yards in any game. Mertz’s woes have continued this season as he has thrown for just 326 yards (6.0 YPA) and has yet to throw a touchdown while tossing two interceptions and losing a fumble.
That will lead to Wisconsin keeping the ball on the ground in this game. The Badgers were able to move the chains on the ground against Penn State, and they should be able to wear down Notre Dame’s front seven too. Chez Mellusi has run for 265 yards and is averaging 5.2 YPC, and Isaac Guerendo and Jalen Berger can carry the load too.
The Irish have had little success running the ball, as the offensive line has not been good. Kyren Williams has run for just 211 yards and is averaging 4.6 YPC despite playing three subpar defenses. That offensive line has also allowed Coan to be sacked 14 times already this season. Coan could be in for another long game on Saturday afternoon as Wisconsin has a good front seven.
Prediction
Wisconsin has the potential to blow out Notre Dame. The Irish aren’t going to have much success moving the ball against the Badgers, and the Notre Dame defense might eventually wear down and give up some big runs. As long as Mertz is decent, the Badgers should be able to cover the spread.
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