The Oklahoma Sooners have a Heisman Trophy candidate quarterback on their roster; it’s just not the guy everyone had pegged as the favorite at the beginning of the season. Despite not losing a game the struggles of Spencer Rattler forced OU to make the switch to Caleb Williams. And so far it’s proven to be a brilliant move. Williams brought the team back to beat Texas a few weeks ago and it doesn’t look like he’s giving up the position. OU puts its 17-game overall winning streak on the line in a huge game against the Baylor Bears on Saturday positioned as a 5.5-point favorite on the college football betting line.
This Week 11 college football matchup takes place on Saturday, November 13, 2021, at 12 p.m. ET at McLane Stadium in Waco, TX and will be televised on FOX. College football odds are available at BookMaker.eu for this and every game this season.
CFB Betting Odds at BookMaker.eu
Oklahoma Sooners -5.5
Baylor Bears +5.5
Total 62
Odds Analysis
For just the second time this season the Sooners will play as a single-digit spread favorite. They opened at -6.5 with early action on Baylor forcing the line down to OU -5.5. Including the Texas game that Williams finished, the Sooners are 3-1 ATS after going just 1-4 ATS through the first five games of the year. The betting public is backing off the Sooners with their momentum possibly quelled following a bye. Baylor turned things around quickly after winning just two games last season. Their loss last week to TCU put a major damper on their Big 12 title hopes, though. At 7-2 this is a must win for hopes of returning to the conference championship game for the second time in three seasons. They haven’t beaten OU since 2014 going 0-7 SU. But the Bears covered the previous three meetings and are 4-3 ATS during the skid. Interest on the UNDER forced the total to drop a few points to 62.
Oklahoma Sooners
You could say replacing a Heisman candidate mid-season is a risky move. But for the Sooners it really wasn’t. Rattler just didn’t look the same as he did last season, and while they were winning games the offense lacked efficiency. It’s not a huge leap to call on a five-star recruit to jumpstart the offense. If the move wasn’t intended to be permanent, Williams made it that way with his outstanding play.
Williams helped the Sooners overcome an 18-point second half deficit to Texas 55-48 in the Red River Rivalry by throwing for a pair of touchdowns and running for another. And he hasn’t let up. In three starts since the cover victory over the Horns, Williams has thrown for nearly 900 yards and 12 touchdowns while completing almost 80 percent of his passes.
The Sooners are averaging 46.3 points in Williams’ three starts twice scoring 52 points. The output increased their season average to 42.9 points, fifth-best in the country. OU is trending to the OVER exceeding the point total in four of the last five games playing with a total of 64 four times.
Baylor Bears
Baylor’s defense looked lost last week against a first-time starting quarterback which doesn’t bode well for their chances of stopping Williams and the Sooners juggernaut. TCU’s Chandler Morris threw for 461 yards and added an additional 70 yards on the ground helping the Frogs to the 30-28 upset. It was an emotional game for TCU playing for the first time in two decades without Gary Patterson on the sideline.
Maybe the Bears were looking ahead to this showdown but they put themselves behind the eight ball with their hopes of winning the conference regular season title all but vanquished. And making the Big 12 Championship game is becoming less likely since their other loss is to Oklahoma State, the only other team ahead of them in the league standings.
That’s not the mindset the club is taking, though. They have a powerful run game that ranks ninth nationally and can control the tempo to keep Williams off the field. And they played solid defense for most of the season. However, both those areas lacked last week. Baylor was shredded by Morris allowing 562 total yards and the ground game produced just 179 yards, over 50 yards below the season average.
Oklahoma at Baylor
I was a bit surprised the spread was this low considering OU’s explosiveness and Baylor’s recent struggles. The Sooners spent their bye watching Baylor give up a lot of yards, which is right in their wheelhouse. But the Bears have been strong at home going 5-0 SU and ATS with their last two against Texas and BYU. Those teams aren’t Oklahoma, though.
BookMaker Pick: Oklahoma Sooners -5.5 / OVER 62
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