The second of the two College Football Playoff semifinal games takes place on Saturday night in Miami, as the Oklahoma Sooners take on the Alabama Crimson Tide in the Orange Bowl on ESPN. Both teams have explosive offenses, so this figures to be a high scoring contest. The Sooners averaged 49.5 points per game to lead the country, while Alabama was 2nd at 47.9 points per game. Let’s look at this game that can be seen on ESPN and live betting at BookMaker.eu.
The Capital One Orange Bowl will take place on Saturday, December 29, 2018 at 8:00 p.m. ET at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida.
NCAA Football Betting at BookMaker.eu
Alabama -14, O/U 77
Odds Analysis
There has not been any movement on the side in this game, but the total has seen some interesting line movement. The total opened at 79 and was bet up all the way to 82, but that number has now come down to 77. Why people are betting the under is unclear considering both of these offenses have been nearly unstoppable this season.
Alabama comes into this game looking for their second straight national title and third in five years. The Crimson Tide were not tested until their last game when they pulled out a 35-28 win over Georgia in the SEC title game. Oklahoma lost just once this season, but played in a number of close games. This will be the third time in the last four seasons that Oklahoma is playing in the College Football Playoff.
Both teams have high-powered offenses led by top quarterbacks. Oklahoma’s Kyler Murray won the Heisman Trophy while, Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa finished second in the voting. Murray threw for 4,053 yards and 40 touchdowns with just seven interceptions and he also rushed for 892 yards and 11 scores, while Tagovailoa threw for 3,353 yards and 37 touchdowns and had just four interceptions. Tagovailoa is said to have recovered well from left ankle surgery he underwent earlier this month.
The big difference between these two teams is on defense. The Sooners simply don’t have a defense. They gave up 32.4 points per game, while the Crimson Tide gave up just 14.8 points per contest.
Oklahoma went over the total in 11 of their 13 games this season, while the Crimson Tide went over eight times, under just four times with one push this season.
Key Stats
The Sooners are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. the SEC. The Sooners are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 neutral site games. The Crimson Tide are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Crimson Tide are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
Looking at the total, the Over is 11-1 in the Sooners last 12 games on grass. The Over is 4-1 in the Sooners last 5 non-conference games. The Under is 7-2 in the Sooners last 9 vs. the SEC. The Under is 5-2 in the Sooners last 7 bowl games. The Over is 4-0 in Alabama’s last 4 non-conference games. The Over is 5-0 in Alabama’s last 5 vs. the Big 12. The Over is 20-5-2 in Alabama’s last 27 neutral site games.
Game Picks
How is Oklahoma going to slow down Alabama? The Sooners defense was a sieve this season and now they go up against a super offense in the Crimson Tide. If Tua is at full strength this is going to be a rout. The only way this is close is if Tua isn’t healthy but all indications are that he is ready to go. I can’t see anything other than a big Alabama win and I also disagree with the line movement on the total, as I can’t envision anything other than a high scoring game. I will lay the points with Alabama and also play the game over the total.
NCAA Football Odds: Alabama 53, Oklahoma 30
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