Despite a blowout loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship it’s been a nice season for the Virginia Cavaliers, who reached a New Year’s Six tilt for the first time and will take on the Florida Gators in the Orange Bowl with a chance to win 10 games. It won’t be easy with current college football odds having the Gators as a two-touchdown favorite to win their second straight NY6 contest. The 2019 Capital One Orange Bowl kicks off at 8 p.m. ET on Monday, December 30, from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. The game will be televised on ESPN.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Florida Gators -14.5
Virginia Cavaliers +14.5
Over/Under 55
Florida vs. Virginia Odds Analysis
Apparently that dismantling by Clemson turned some of the support for Virginia. The Gators opened as a 13.5-point favorite and after a slight drop the line has risen steadily to its current -14.5. There isn’t much question as to who has the better team, but can Florida cover the line that’s likely to see another spike? UF went 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS when playing against a multi-touchdown spread. Early action on the over forced a one-point spike in the total to 55 from its opening of 54.
Florida Odds
It’s safe to say Dan Mullen has the Gators back to being an elite program. They went 10-2 this season with their only losses to No. 5 LSU and by a touchdown to No. 8 Georgia. Following their neutral site setback to the Bulldogs, Florida ended the campaign with a win and cover in its final three matchups to finish at 8-4 ATS. The Gators were a double-digit favorite in six games going 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS in those outings.
Florida has been to the Orange Bowl three times previously winning each game by at least 15 points. Their last visit was following the 2008 season when the Gators finished off a BCS national championship campaign with a 24-14 win over Oklahoma. That also started a run that’s seen the Gators win seven of their last nine postseason trips going 7-2 ATS. They hammered Michigan, 41-15, in last season’s Peach Bowl. Kyle Trask has done a nice job leading the offense since taking over at quarterback, but the Gators are about defense. They pitched three shutouts and finished with the eighth-best scoring defense in the country allowing just 14.4 points per game.
Virginia Odds
Talk about a swing of emotion, the Cavaliers experienced a huge one over their last two games. First was the win over rival Virginia Tech that snapped a 15-game losing streak in the series and earned the Cavs a trip to their first ACC title tilt. And we know what happened in that one. UVA got rolled by Clemson, 62-17. Still, the Cavs are headed to their third straight bowl, their longest postseason streak since a four-game run in the early to mid-2000s. And the Cavs have a chance to match a program record with their 10th win. They covered two straight and three of four before falling as a 29-point dog to the Tigers. UVA got points in four games during the season going 1-3 SU and ATS with the only win and cover coming against the Hokies.
Bryce Perkins is the X-factor that can negate Florida’s aggressive defense. He passed for 3,215 yards and 18 touchdowns while leading the team with 745 rushing yards and an additional 11 scores. The Cavs became the first team this season to amass more than 300 total yards against Clemson when they went for 387 with Perkins throwing for 266 and running for 58. Outside of Perkins they haven’t had much success running the football so the return of Joe Reed, who has team-highs of 70 receptions and six touchdown grabs, will certainly help.
Key Trends
Florida played a much tougher schedule and fared better in games against tougher competition, which certainly gives them an edge in this one. The Gators also have experience in the postseason with a beatdown of Michigan in last season’s NY6 Peach Bowl. UVA hasn’t won a major bowl since 1995 and is playing in just its fourth bowl game in the last 12 seasons. In two games against top-10 competition, the Cavs were 0-2 SU and ATS getting outscored by Notre Dame and Clemson by a combined tally of 97-37. The Gators, meanwhile, beat No. 7 Auburn and went 2-1 ATS in games against top-10 squads.
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