On a national level this is the marquee matchup of opening weekend with a pair of ranked teams going head-to-head at a neutral site. The return of Justin Herbert has the Oregon Ducks thinking CFP this year while the Auburn Tigers are likely playing for Gus Malzahn’s job. OU is the higher ranked team in the preseason AP Poll at No. 11, but the Ducks are getting a field on the college football betting lines at offshore sportsbooks. The only Week 1 matchup of ranked teams takes place on Saturday, August 31 from ATT Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The game airs live on ABC at 7:30 p.m. ET.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Oregon Ducks +3
Auburn Tigers -3
Over/Under 55.5
Oregon vs. Auburn Odds Analysis
There has been little movement on the line, but it has been significant. Auburn opened at -2.5 at some offshore sportsbooks and was bet up to -3.5. This spike had its intended result with the underdogs seeing more action. A majority of action is coming in for Oregon pushing the line back a half point. While movement has been subtle, expect that to change as we get closer to kickoff. With nearly two-thirds of the action on the under, the total dipped a few points to its current 55.5.
Oregon Odds
The Ducks went 9-4 straight up a season ago, but they weren’t very good against the line with a 5-8 ATS ledger. They played four games in 2018 as an underdog and were 1-3 SU and ATS. The surprising return of Herbert opens the door for a more successful season from a betting perspective. There are upgrades at the skill positions, which should help Herbert’s Heisman quest and Oregon’s over/under record. The under was 7-5-1 last year with only two games having a lower total than the current 55.5.
Auburn Odds
For a team coming off a disappointing 8-5 season the Tigers are getting plenty of love in this matchup. Could it be the perceived SEC bias over the not-so-Power 5 Pac 12? Maybe, or maybe the betting public knows that this season is pivotal for Malzahn and his team. Auburn did upend Pac-12 favorite Washington in last year’s opener, covering the 1.5-point spread in a 21-16 victory. That was a typical look last season with a solid Auburn defense trying to make up for a lackluster offense. The Tigers went 6-7 ATS and the under was 8-5.
Key Stats
The stat that tells the story for this game is at quarterback. Herbert was a likely first-round NFL draft pick had he elected to forego his final season. He has the size pro scouts drool over and he’s a prototypical NFL quarterback. He threw for 3,151 yards with 29 touchdowns and just eight interceptions last season. One area that needs improvement is his accuracy. Herbert completed less than 60 percent of his 404 passes. Many are hailing Herbert as a Heisman Trophy candidate this year, though he’s down the odds board at most offshore sportsbooks.
There are things Herbert needs to work on, which is probably why he elected to return for his senior season. Over the course of his career Herbert has thrown 865 passes, which are 865 more than his counterpart. Bo Nix was named Auburn’s starter, becoming the first true freshman quarterback to start a game under Malzahn.
Last Meeting
The teams have met just once, but it was a doozy. You might recall the BCS Championship game following the 2010 season when Cam Newton’s Tigers prevailed 22-19. That matchup has little to do with this game, but it is a cool trip down memory lane and you know the ABC broadcast will be all over that last meeting. Auburn travels well and it’s not that far to Jerry’s World, so expect the Tigers to have the advantage on that front. But it comes down to executing on the field, and the Ducks have the more experienced quarterback, an underrated defense and a bevy of playmakers to give Auburn fits. I have to take the points in this one, and so should you.
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