We get a battle of unbeaten top-5 teams in a crucial Big Ten crossover game this week when the Penn State Nittany Lions visit the Iowa Hawkeyes. The top two teams in the country are a given, but these two are next in line with the winner gaining a big edge in the CFP race. That probably works out better for No. 3 Iowa, which has an easier road in the Big Ten West. After this one PSU still has games with Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State making their path a lot more dangerous. Both teams carry lengthy winning streaks into the confrontation. Iowa has won its past 11 games going 9-2 ATS while PSU has won nine in a row with covers in eight of them.
This Week 6 college football matchup takes place on Saturday, October 9, 2021, at 4 p.m. ET at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, IA and will be televised on FOX. College football odds are available at BookMaker.eu for this and every game this season.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Penn State Nittany Lions +2
Iowa Hawkeyes -2
Total 41
Odds Analysis
A battle between two evenly-matched teams figures to have a close line and that’s the case. Iowa opened as a 3-point favorite with the line dropping as low as Iowa -1.5 before settling at the current number. Iowa snapped a six-game losing streak in the series with its 41-21 win last year as a 1-point favorite. Only once in the previous seven meetings has the line closed higher than a converted a touchdown. Both teams are stout defensively which is why the total dropped from 42.5 to 41. The UNDER is 4-2 in the last six series games.
Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn State has the more difficult schedule remaining making the outcome of this game important for them. And they’ve turned things around since opening last season with five straight losses. They improved to 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS with their 24-0 blanking of Indiana last week as a 12-point favorite. And while they’ve gotten solid play from Sean Clifford, it’s the defense carrying the club.
It all started in the season opener when the Lions forced three Wisconsin turnovers and held the Badgers to 7 of 22 on third down in a 16-10 win. They possessed the football for just over 17 minutes but scored the final nine points to overcome a 10-7 fourth quarter deficit. And the defense has been splendid ever since allowing only 12 points per game without conceding more than 20 points in any outing.
Penn State has an edge in the offensive stats scoring 30 points an outing and averaging 418.4 yards. Clifford and the offense padded their stats in blowout wins over Ball State and Villanova, though. Things will be much harder against Iowa’s defense. A more balanced attack would help and the Lions got some traction in the ground game last week with Keyvone Lee rushing for 74 of the team’s 209 yards.
Iowa Hawkeyes
Penn State may have better numbers on offense but it’s Iowa’s defense that rules the stat sheet in this matchup. Only two teams allow fewer points per game than PSU and the Hawkeyes are one of them. Iowa ranks second nationally giving up 11.6 points and that number increased slightly when Maryland scored a pair of touchdowns last week. It didn’t matter though since the ball-hawking group intercepted six passes and forced seven turnovers in the 51-14 thumping.
I don’t expect PSU to be as philanthropic this week so the Hawkeyes will have to go earn a victory. Last week’s win was a nice response to their lackadaisical effort in a 24-14 win over Colorado State. Iowa was laying 24-points on the closing line and trailed by a touchdown at halftime. It was only their second ATS loss during their 11-game winning streak and their ATS loss this season.
Don’t let the score of last week’s game fool you; the Hawkeyes have a lot of work to do on offense to become a legit playoff contender. They amassed 428 yards with Spencer Petras throwing three TD passes and running for two more. But they were aided by the seven turnovers. They rank 119th in total offense averaging 320 yards. A strong defense and suspect offense has them at 4-1 against the UNDER.
Penn State at Iowa Prediction
It’s going to be a struggle to score and even though the total has come down there’s value in backing the UNDER. I like Penn State’s balance, but I really like Iowa’s defense and Clifford is facing something much different than Ball State and Villanova. We saw how PSU struggled on the road against Wisconsin, and they won’t be so lucky to escape with a win this time.
BookMaker Pick: Iowa -2 / UNDER 41
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