The Ohio State Buckeyes looked like a lost group after an early loss to Oregon. They have since regrouped winning five games in a row by an average margin of nearly 42 points with covers in each of the last four. The road to another Big Ten East title and conference championship begins on Saturday with a visit from the Penn State Nittany Lions. Three teams in the East have yet to lose a conference game and they all play each other over the next few weeks. And though they’ve lost two straight, the Lions aren’t out of the picture either with games against the top squads remaining, starting with Saturday’s showdown that has PSU as an 18.5-point road dog.
This Week 9 college football matchup takes place on Saturday, October 30, 2021, at 7:30 p.m. ET at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, OH and will be televised on ABC. College football odds are available at BookMaker.eu for this and every game this season.
CFB Betting Odds at BookMaker.eu
Penn State Nittany Lions +18.5
Ohio State Buckeyes -18.5
Total 61
Odds Analysis
Considering the direction the teams are headed it isn’t a surprise to see Ohio State open as a big 18-point favorite. Then again the Buckeyes were double digit favorites in each of the last two meetings and in six of the previous eight so there is a common theme. And following PSU’s overtime loss to Illinois where they were laying 24.5-points and OSU’s 47-point thrashing of Indiana, the line was bet up a half point to OSU -18.5. The total spiked slightly to 61 making it two straight and three of the last four games the over/under reached 60.
Penn State Nittany Lions
A sign of just how bad things have gotten for the Nittany Lions was last week’s game. Not only did PSU lose outright as a 24.5-point home favorite, it took nine overtime sessions to do it. And they scored a total of eight points in those nine possessions. The recently tweaked OT rules got a workout and will reduce scoring in the extra session, but this was borderline criminal. It was just a sloppy game by both sides, but one you wouldn’t expect from Penn State.
After opening the season with five consecutive wins, things took a sharp turn in the Week 6 loss at Iowa. Sean Clifford left that game with an unspecified injury and the Lions blew a 10-point second half lead in the 23-20 setback. A bye allowed Clifford time to get back in the lineup against Illinois. He threw only nine passes in the first half and was mostly ineffective.
The defense continues to do its job, but Clifford needs to do more to get the offense going. James Franklin said he’ll have a “100 percent Sean Clifford” for this week’s contest, which is a plus since he struggled against Illinois. The Nittany Lions haven’t scored more than 24 points in any of their previous three games and they rank 101st in the country in rushing. That has something to do with their 5-2 record against the UNDER.
Ohio State Buckeyes
While the Buckeyes’ offense has been rolling, you can credit their turnaround to a vastly improved group of defenders. Surrendering 66 points combined in the first two games, including a 35-28 home loss to Oregon in Week 2, many wondered if this team had what it took to contend not only for a CFP berth but the Big Ten East title as well. I guess that question was answered.
Last week’s 54-7 win over Indiana continued a recent trend that’s seen the Buckeyes play the most dominant football of any FBS team. Granted the competition wasn’t the best, but outscoring their last five opponents 272-64 has OSU sitting pretty for this game. They scored more than 50 points in each of the last four games while going 4-0 ATS. They also cashed the OVER in three straight and four of five.
With 25 consecutive wins over Big Ten opponents, the Buckeyes are in a good spot on both sides of the football to extend that streak. And they’ve also had PSU’s number winning the last four meetings and eight of the previous nine. Ohio State’s 38-25 cover win last year broke a run of four straight ATS losses in the series.
Penn State at Ohio State
Penn State still has a chance to win the East, though the odds are long. Wins over Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State could potentially do it, and having a healthier Clifford gives them a chance. They will have to score and that could be an issue against OSU’s resurgent stop group. But I do think the Nittany Lions can stay within the spread with its gritty defense.
BookMaker Pick: Penn State Nittany Lions +18.5 / UNDER 61
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