The unluckiest team in college football in 2020 was Penn State. The Nittany Lions started the season 0-5, and they should have won two or three of those games. They outgained Indiana by 277 yards in their season opener, but they lost by a point in overtime. After a deserved loss to Ohio State, Penn State lost to Maryland despite outgaining them due to three turnovers, and the Nittany Lions lost to Nebraska the following week although they outgained the Cornhuskers by over 200 yards.
Penn State’s luck finally started evening out in late November. The Nittany Lions went on to win their final four games by at least 10 points. That has everyone in Happy Valley thinking that last year was an aberration, but a slow start to the 2021 campaign would certainly be concerning after what we saw in 2020.
Penn State Nittany Lions Season Win Total
Over 9 +134
Under 9 -165
Penn State Nittany Lions Preview
Will Levis transferred to Kentucky in the offseason, making Sean Clifford the undisputed starter under center. Clifford had an up-and-down season in 2020. He was too turnover prone in the first five games, throwing eight interceptions and fumbling twice in the 0-5 start. However, Clifford was much better to close out the year and wasn’t nearly as mistake prone. That is the quarterback Penn State is hoping to see in 2021.
The offensive line was a big disappointment last season. Penn State really struggled in pass blocking, allowing four sacks against Illinois, five sacks against Ohio State, and seven sacks against Maryland. Their run blocking wasn’t great either and leading rusher Keyvone Lee was held in check until the tail end of the season.
There is hope this unit will improve in 2021. Young tackles Rasheed Walker and Caedan Wallace should improve with the experience, but the interior line is more of a concern. Noah Cain and Devyn Ford are healthy once again too, so there is real depth at running back.
These receivers are some of the best in the Big Ten. Jahan Dotson was a standout with 52 receptions for 884 yards and eight touchdowns, and Parker Washington had 36 catches for 489 yards and six scores. The loss of Pat Freiermuth will certainly hurt, but there is some depth at tight end and receiver.
Defensively, the toughest task will be replacing the defensive line. Three of four starters from 2020 have left the program, leaving nose tackle P.J. Mustipher as the only player with real experience up front. That led to Penn State bringing in Duke transfer Derrick Tangelo and Temple transfer Arnold Ebiketie earlier this year.
This back seven figures to be strong though. Three of the leading tacklers from 2020 return to the fold, and there is a ton of experience at linebacker after this unit had to survive without Micah Parsons last season. The safeties might be the best in the conference due to their experience, but there are some concerns at cornerback.
2021 Penn State Nittany Lions Schedule
September 4 @ Wisconsin
September 11 vs. Ball State
September 18 vs. Auburn
September 25 vs. Villanova
October 2 vs. Indiana
October 9 @ Iowa
October 23 vs. Illinois
October 30 @ Ohio State
November 6 @ Maryland
November 13 vs. Michigan
November 20 vs. Rutgers
November 27 @ Michigan State
Penn State Nittany Lions Win Total Prediction
September will be an interesting month for Penn State. The Nittany Lions have two gimme games in Ball State and Villanova, but Wisconsin and Auburn are relative coin flips. They are currently five-point underdogs on the road against the Badgers and touchdown favorites at home against the Tigers. Those two games against Power Five opponents will set the tone for the season.
The month of October won’t be easy for this team either. Penn State went 1-3 against the four teams they will play in October last season, and a road trip to Iowa after a home game against Indiana will be challenging. Fortunately, they have a bye week and a home tilt against Illinois before facing Ohio State in Columbus.
That has led to bettors jumping on the under, but the over may have value at this price. Ohio State is the only clear loss on the slate, and Penn State has a good chance of going 4-0 in November.
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