Three college football first round playoff games take place on Saturday, Dec. 21 giving us some rarely seen matchups. In their first season as members of the ACC the SMU Mustangs rehashed the “Pony Express” glory days going 11-1 during the regular season. They lost to Clemson in the ACC Championship but still earned a spot in the expanded playoff and will take on Penn State at 12 p.m. ET from Beaver Stadium. The game will air on TNT/Max. The Nittany Lions also came up short in the Big Ten title game falling to top seed Oregon 45-37 and also boasts an 11-2 record. The teams have met just twice previously the last taking place in 1978. Penn State opened at the Bitcoin Sportsbook as an 8.5-point favorite with the total of 54 the highest in any of the three CFP games on Saturday.
College Football Betting Lines
CFP First Round Betting Odds
SMU Mustangs +8.5 / ML +257
Penn State Nittany Lions -8.5 / ML -302
Over / Under 54
Despite having the same record and falling in their respective conference championship game, Penn State earned a higher seed due to its strength of schedule. The Nittany Lions were defeated by Ohio State and Oregon in one-score games. However, they also had a difficult time with lesser teams like USC, Minnesota and Bowling Green. PSU trailed the Falcons at halftime before pulling away for a 34-27 decision. SMU dropped an 18-15 game to BYU in Week 2 before rattling off nine straight wins with seven payouts.
The Mustangs rallied from a 31-14 fourth quarter deficit to tie Clemson in the ACC title game before the Tigers got a game-winning walk-off field goal. The high powered offense displayed all season came to life amassing 458 total yards in that game against one of the conference’s best defensive units. While both teams are solid defensively they might be better on the offensive side, which is why I’m leaning toward the OVER on my college football parlay.
SMU has scored at least 28 points in all but one game this season and topped the 30-point mark in each of its last five games. Kevin Jennings has given opponents nightmares throwing for 3,050 yards and 22 touchdowns while rushing for 379 yards and five more scores. Brashard Smith rounds out the balanced attack rushing for 1,270 yards and 6.0 yards per pop with 14 TDs. The Mustangs are sixth nationally in scoring averaging 38.5 points and they’re inside the top 20 in total offense.
We typically don’t think of Penn State as an offensive juggernaut, but with Drew Allar running the show the Nittany Lions are fourth in the 18-team Big Ten in scoring, behind only fellow CFP participants Indiana, Oregon and Ohio State. The unit was particularly sharp down the stretch scoring at least 35 points in four of their last five ball games. Behind Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton they have a punishing ground game that bullied Oregon for nearly 300 yards in the Big Ten championship. Both players have rushed for more than 800 yards with 13 rushing scores between them.
Working through a highly successful season, PSU got good news when Allar announced that he would return to the program next season. There’s still work ahead of him this year, though, and Allar continues to build on solid numbers. He’s completed more than 69 percent of his passes for 2,894 yards with 21 touchdowns and only seven interceptions. Some quality QBs have gone through the program and of them all Allar has the highest completion percentage, best efficiency rating and lowest interception rate.
Offense gets top billing in this matchup, but the teams can and have played defense this year, though you wouldn’t know if from their last outing. Penn State allowed more than 20 points in a game just three times during the regular season while SMU held its last two regular season foes to a combined 13 points. Both unit were ravaged in championship game losses, though, and with SMU’s explosive offense the spread of 8.5-points seems too high for me.
SMU at Penn State Same Game Parlay Picks
SMU +8.5
SMU / Penn State OVER 54
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