Few college football rivalries have taken a hit like the Third Saturday in October between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Tennessee Volunteers. A formerly competitive rivalry between SEC powerhouses has become a laughable annual game as Tennessee has taken a big step back, while Alabama has become the preeminent dynasty in college football over the last 15 years.
Nick Saban has yet to lose to Tennessee since coming to Tuscaloosa, as the Crimson Tide have won 14 straight games in this rivalry. The Volunteers have not scored more than 21 points against the Crimson Tide in that stretch, and they have only kept the final score within 13 points on two occasions. That explains why this rivalry has lost a lot of its luster and is no longer guaranteed to be on the third Saturday in October.
College Football Betting Odds at BookMaker.eu
Tennessee Volunteers +25.5
Alabama Crimson Tide -25.5
Total 67
The big question for Tennessee ahead of this game is the status of Hendon Hooker. The Volunteers’ starting quarterback appeared to sustain a knee injury late in last week’s loss to Ole Miss, and Josh Heupel has officially declared him to be day-to-day. We probably won’t know whether or not Hooker will start under center for the Vols until a few hours before kickoff, and if he can’t go, Michigan transfer Joe Milton will get the nod.
There is a huge difference between Hooker and Milton. Since transferring in from Virginia Tech and taking over the starting job, Hooker has given the Volunteers a huge spark. He is completing 68.8% of his passes for 9.4 YPA with 14 touchdowns and an interception. Hooker has been sacked more often than Milton, but he has been an immensely better passer. Milton is completing just 46.7% of his passes for 5.7 YPA with a touchdown and no picks.
Tennessee would love to establish the run against Alabama. Both Hooker and Milton are mobile threats, and Tiyon Evans is averaging 6.7 YPC for the Volunteers. The Crimson Tide typically have one of the most solid front sevens in the country, but that isn’t the case in 2021. Florida showed that you can run on this team if you stick to it, but the key is for Tennessee’s defense to keep it somewhat close.
Alabama has one of the best offenses in the country. The Crimson Tide rank third in scoring offense (44.5 PPG) and ninth in total offense (492.3 YPG). They are converting third downs at a better clip than any other program, as Bryce Young is one of the few quarterbacks that has lived up to the hype.
Young is completing 69.6% of his passes for 9.3 YPA with 24 touchdowns and three interceptions. He isn’t much of a mobile threat, but he has two potential 1,000-yard receivers in Jameson Williams and John Metchie III.
After losing multiple games due to having a subpar kicker, the Crimson Tide have emphasized this position over the last few seasons. Will Reichard has been very reliable for the team, converting all 40 of his extra points and is 9-10 for field goals. That could mean the difference between covering and failing to cover in this game.
Prediction
If Tennessee can hold Alabama to 45 points or less, the Volunteers should be able to cover the spread. That’s a sizeable conditional though, as the Vols are currently middle-of-the-pack in both scoring defense and total defense. Tennessee should be able to score at least 20 points against this defense in Heupel’s quick-strike system, so bet on the Volunteers to stay within the number.
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