After going toe-to-toe with top-ranked Alabama last week and nearly pulling off the upset, the Florida Gators return to competition more at their level with a SEC East tilt against the Tennessee Volunteers. Close just isn’t good enough and the Gators need wins to set up a possible rematch with the Tide in December. They have a good chance to jump back in the win column having won eight straight games over the Vols in the Swamp and 15 of the previous 16 games overall. Oddsmakers like the Gators’ chances as well putting them at 16.5-point favorites on the opening college football betting line.
This Week 4 college football matchup takes place on Saturday, September 25, 2021, at 7 p.m. ET at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, FL and will be televised on ESPN. College football odds are available at BookMaker.eu for this and every game this season.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Tennessee Volunteers +20
Florida Gators -20
Total 64.5
Odds Analysis
Both teams enter this SEC tilt at 2-1 but it’s the Gators getting most of the love at the betting window. The line opened at UF -16.5 and the public pounced forcing a major spike. The line soared to Florida -20 at the beginning of the week and has since leveled off. We also saw a big increase in the total with the number wagered up to 64.5 after hitting the board at 60.5. The Vols are coming off a 56-0 trouncing of FCS Tennessee Tech picking up their first ATS win while cashing the OVER in a second straight game.
Tennessee Volunteers
There’s always a risk playing a lower division team, but that wasn’t an issue for Tennessee last week. In fact, their 56-0 victory may actually lead to better things. Not only did the Vols get the convincing win, they also had standout performances from several players. You can’t take too much away from a blowout win over an inferior opponent, but the Vols now have a quarterback dilemma on their hands.
Joe Milton won the starting job over the summer but was less than inspiring in the first two games. He was 11 of 23 for 139 yards in the season-opening win over Bowling Green and completed just 7 of 12 passes for 50 yards before leaving the Pitt contest. Hendon Hooker got the start against Tennessee Tech completing 68 percent of his passes for 199 yards and three touchdowns. In the second half of the Pitt game Hooker hit 15 of 21 for 188 yards and two touchdowns. Hooker has done enough to distance himself from Milton for the starting gig and quite honestly he gives the Vols their best chance for an upset.
The Vols have outscored opponents 38-0 in the first quarter and need a good opening to threaten the heavily favored Gators. History isn’t on their side, though. The Vols haven’t won at The Swamp since 2003 going 0-8 SU and 3-4-1 ATS since then. During their current four-game losing streak to UF the Vols allowed an average of 34.5 points.
Florida Gators
For the second consecutive game against Alabama the Gators came close to winning. They dropped last season’s SEC Championship and lost 31-29 last week as a two-touchdown home underdog. They had a chance to tie the game late failing to convert a 2-point PAT. So, how does Florida respond? This could go either way. They might suffer an emotional letdown allowing the Vols to take control. Or they could be loaded with confidence after taking the defending champs and No. 1 ranked team down to the wire.
I expect the latter and the Gators will come out swinging against a formidable but beatable foe. The second-ranked ground attack will look pierce the strong Vols interior and the team that wins the battle up front will have an edge. The Gators ran for over 250 yards against Alabama and average 336.3 for the season. The return of Anthony Richardson will help pile up the yards. Richardson missed the Alabama game, but he’s been a highlight reel when on the field. He leads the team with 275 rushing yards and has two touchdowns on only 11 carries.
The maligned defense also came up large last week giving the Gators a shot at the upset. After surrendering 21 first quarter points the group stiffened allowing only 10 points the rest of the way while bottling up the Bama passing game. Stopping the Vols should be a little easier.
Tennessee Volunteers at Florida Gators Prediction
Florida looked good in last week’s loss to Alabama and they have a bunch of weapons on offense to test a good Tennessee defense. The development of Emory Jones in the passing game makes the Gators even more dangerous. Tennessee’s lofty defensive numbers were buoyed by wins over Bowling Green and Tennessee Tech. The Vols gave up 41 points to Pitt proving the group isn’t as good as the stats. That’s why I’m leaning on the OVER.
BookMaker Pick: Over 64.5
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