My total plays came through in a big way last week. After some really bad losses in Weeks 6-8, Week 9 was incredibly fruitful and if you took any of my picks with action points you made a lot of money. Pittsburgh and Duke combined to double the 46-point total in a 54-45 Pitt win, UTEP and UAB went under the 49-point total by 30 points, and California and Washington combined for a meager 22 points in their game. In all, my picks easily went 3-0 ATS per the CFB betting odds, and they covered by a combined 100 points. That was by far my best week of the season, and that has me confident going into Week 10 action.
Auburn vs. Texas A&M Under 49
This line probably would have been four or five points lower if Nick Fitzgerald and Mississippi State didn’t light up the Aggies last week. It had been almost a month since Fitzgerald last threw for a touchdown, but the Aggies defense didn’t have much of an answer for Fitzgerald who had 329 total yards and four touchdowns against them last Saturday.
I’m going to chalk that up to a bad game, as defensive coordinator Mike Elko is seen as one of the sharper defensive minds around. The only other schools to have that kind of success against this defense were Clemson and Alabama, and those are only the top two teams in the country.
Auburn still doesn’t have an offensive line, so I don’t see Jarrett Stidham getting much done, but the Tigers do have a fantastic defense. They rank fifth in the nation on defense per S&P+, and they have been great all year aside from a mind-numbing loss against Tennessee.
Clemson vs. Louisville Under 59.5
You might be scratching your head at this play considering what Clemson did against Florida State last week. The Tigers lit up the Seminoles for 59 points in Florida State’s biggest loss since before Bobby Bowden took over the program, and Trevor Lawrence looked phenomenal in the effort.
This is largely a positional play. Clemson almost has to have a letdown after such a big win over its biggest conference rival, and the Tigers are not going to want to show much against a Louisville team that has free-fallen without Lamar Jackson. The Tigers’ last tough conference game of the season is next week at Boston College, and I’d bet they run a vanilla gameplan this week.
Additionally, Clemson may want to get its ground game going. That’s the one complaint Tigers fans have after last week’s game against Florida State, as the team averaged just 3.8 yards per carry against the Seminoles. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a healthy dose of Travis Etienne and Lyn-J Dixon with just a sprinkling of Trevor Lawrence.
Oh, and on the other side of the ball? Don’t count on Louisville getting much done against a defensive line that is one of the best we have ever seen in the college game.
South Florida vs. Tulane Over 59.5
Tulane doesn’t have the best offense in the world. I know that might come as a shock, but the Green Wave have an offense ranked 110th in the nation according to S&P+ and points have been at a premium.
However, South Florida’s defense has been abysmal. The Bulls have allowed 42 points to UMass, 24 points to Tulsa, 30 points to Connecticut, and 57 points to Houston over their last four games. They have had a very difficult time stopping dual threat quarterbacks, and head coach Willie Frist will be able to exploit that.
Frist pulled the plug on senior quarterback Jonathan Banks last week, and Justin McMillan got the start instead. McMillan looked good in a win over Tulsa, and he will likely get the call again this week. I think he will have a very good day against this defense, while South Florida puts up a lot of points to push this over.
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