For the second straight week, my total plays went 2-1, and again it was an AAC team based in Florida that cost me a shot at a 3-0 week. Two weeks ago, it was UCF that cost me in its win over Navy, but last week USF cost me in a loss to Temple. The Bulls were unable to get much offense going against a Temple defense that had been gashed recently, while their own defense played surprisingly well in a game that ended up sailing under the CFB betting total. Fortunately, my other two plays did hit as Florida State and Boston College finished short of their total and Mississippi State single-handedly went over its total in a rout of Arkansas. Let’s close out the regular season with three straight winning weeks.
NCAA Football Betting at BookMaker.eu
Missouri vs. Arkansas Over 61.5
I made the case for this play somewhat in my Fade the Public Plays article, but I like the over in this one even more than I like Arkansas to cover.
The Tigers have a great quarterback in Drew Lock. Lock will likely be a first round pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, and he has turned it on at the end of this year just like he did in 2017. Over the last month, his only bad performance came against a very good Kentucky defense, and he has led the Tigers to at least 33 points against their four other opponents. He is fresh off of torching a Tennessee defense that didn’t have a chance, and Arkansas’ defense is likely to be worse in the secondary.
The Razorbacks are razor thin in the secondary. Chevin Calloway has been out for two months, and both Nate Dalton and Derrick Munson recently left the team. Additionally, Kamren Curl and Ryan Pulley have been suspended for this game after concentrating more on the sideline entertainment than their warm-ups in pregame drills last week. Jordon Curtis may be out too, making the situation rather dire.
Arkansas will be able to score some points though. The Tigers don’t have a very good defense, and the Razorbacks offense has progressed slowly over the course of the season. This one could easily have 80 points.
Clemson vs. South Carolina Under 59
Clemson has the best defense in the country entering this game, and the Tigers will be looking to make quick work of South Carolina in this one. The Gamecocks have been pretty decent on offense this season, but I expect Will Muschamp to try to go incredibly slow and chew up as much of the clock as possible to try to knock off Clemson.
The Tigers seem to be on cruise control at this point. Trevor Lawrence showed what he’s capable of in blowout wins over Florida State and Louisville, and Clemson went very vanilla against both Boston College and Duke in the last two weeks. I don’t see a reason for them to change things up against this South Carolina team.
Florida State vs. Florida Under 52
Much like last week, I don’t see why the total in a Florida State game is this high considering all the problems the Seminoles have had along the offensive line. The Gators will be able to take advantage of those problems even more than Boston College did last week, and I don’t see FSU scoring more than 21 points against a defense that has been one of the better units in the country.
On the other side of the ball, FSU has continued to look sharp on defense. The Seminoles have stopped the run well, and their major issue has been one of fatigue as the offense left them out to dry earlier in the year. Feleipe Franks is not a quarterback that will make a ton of plays to beat you, so this should be a close, low-scoring affair.
NCAA Football Odds
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