Last week was an unmitigated disaster. Two of my total plays never had a chance, and while I was a bit unlucky with the third, it was still a loss. Losing the under in Florida and Florida State was somewhat unfortunate. The Seminoles couldn’t move the ball against the Gators well at all, and so Florida State’s defense eventually burst in the second half, allowing 28 points to push the game over the total.
The over in Missouri and Arkansas was not nearly that close. Chad Morris and the Razorbacks failed to score a point on Missouri, and while weather may have played a factor, it didn’t stop Missouri from moving the ball just fine.
That was a better looking loss than what happened in Clemson and South Carolina though. I didn’t see a way for the Gamecocks to score a lot on the Tigers, and I figured Will Muschamp would go very conservative and limit possessions to try to grit out a victory. Obviously, I figured wrong. The two teams combined to score 91, going over the total by more than 30 points.
NCAA Football Betting at BookMaker.eu
Northwestern vs. Ohio State Over 61
We saw what the Buckeyes offense can do last week. Michigan had the No. 1 defense in the nation according to most metrics coming into the Big Game, but that wasn’t the case after Ohio State pasted them. The Buckeyes put 62 points on the board, as Dwayne Haskins proved he is incredibly dangerous as a run-pass threat.
Of course, the Buckeyes still couldn’t stop anyone on defense. Ohio State’s defense allowed Michigan to put up 39, and that has to have Clayton Thorson thinking he can move the ball against this secondary. Thorson is likely to be an NFL draft pick at the end of the year, and while he doesn’t put up big numbers, he can be very efficient with the ball.
Another reason to like the over here is because what Ohio State needs. The Buckeyes need to win big and score some style points if they have any chance of overtaking Oklahoma in the College Football Playoff rankings. That’s a position Urban Meyer has thrived in in the past.
South Carolina vs. Akron Under 56.5
If I lose this one, I’ll have egg on my face for trusting South Carolina with my money once more. However, the Gamecocks’ tilt with Akron on Saturday should be low scoring. This is a make-up game from earlier in the year, and while both sides want to win, their goals are different.
The Gamecocks scheduled this game because they wanted to make sure they were bowl eligible, but they are 6-5 and are already guaranteed a spot in bowl season. Meanwhile, this is strictly business for Akron who is getting a large check to come here, and since the Zips can’t be bowl eligible, these players likely want to have some fun.
I’d be surprised if either team was particularly motivated for this one, and I’m expecting to see disjointed play as a result.
Boise State vs. Fresno State Under 52
The first meeting between these two teams finished with just 41 points on the board, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see a similar result in the MWC Championship Game. Fresno State’s teams have relied on their defense in order to secure victories this season, and the Bulldogs have one of the best defenses in the country. S&P+ ranks this as the 11th best defense in the nation, and that’s pretty high praise.
Meanwhile, Boise State’s defense has taken a step back, but it’s still a quality unit when push comes to shove. The Broncos have been stout in the front seven, and they allowed just 3.8 yards per carry to the Bulldogs earlier in the year. They will make Fresno State one-dimensional and force Marcus McMarryion to throw.
NCAA Football Odds
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