Last week, my total plays went 2-2. The under in Boston College and Temple never had a chance, and Central Florida’s defense completely shut down Pittsburgh’s offense to keep that game from going over the total. In the two wins, I was a bit fortunate in the Texas Tech and West Virginia game as the under cashed by a scant 1.5 points, but I was dead on with the under in Mississippi State and Florida. It’s time to turn a profit with the Week 6 Total Plays.
Massachusetts vs. South Florida Under 70.5
Under Charlie Strong, South Florida has a habit of playing down to its opponents. The Bulls were expected to crush Illinois and East Carolina in each of their last two games, but instead USF did just enough to win. The offense has looked stifled under new quarterback Blake Barnett, as he has not represented the running threat of Quinton Flowers, and the running game has had a hard time getting things going.
Massachusetts has played a lot of shootouts this year, but I expect the offense to struggle with Mark Whipple suspended for this game. Whipple made some…unfortunate comments after the Minutemen lost to Ohio last week, and it led to the university suspending him for this game. He has been the team’s coach and offensive coordinator for five years, and this offense might grind to a halt without an experienced playcaller.
Central Florida vs. SMU Over 71
I’m going back to the well with UCF. The Knights have one of the most explosive offenses in the country, and they have shredded their opponents defensively. McKenzie Milton has been terrifying as a dual-threat option, and this team is playing faster under new coach Josh Heupel than it did last year under Scott Frost. SMU’s defense has had a hard time stopping opponents in both phases of the game, so the Knights are going to score some points.
The Mustangs are going to move the ball well too. After some hiccups early on, Sonny Dykes’ offense seems to have found its footing and SMU is going to let it fly through the air. Freshman quarterback William Brown has provided a spark to this offense, and his ability to take off and run gives the Mustangs a dynamic they didn’t have with Ben Hicks. UCF’s defense is not as good as you might think, and SMU will put up some numbers on this unit.
Virginia Tech vs. Notre Dame Under 53
A lot of people are off the Hokies’ bandwagon after their disappointing loss to Old Dominion two weeks ago, but Bud Foster is one of the sharpest defensive minds in the game. The loss to Old Dominion looks like a textbook case of a school completely overlooking an opponent, and the Hokies defense played great in a win over Duke last week.
Notre Dame is not as good as you might think either. Ian Book is being heralded as the final piece to the puzzle after wresting control of the starting quarterback role away from Brandon Wimbush, but Book’s two starts came against a bad Wake Forest defense and a Stanford defense that was gassed after last week’s win over Oregon. The Hokies will stop their ground game and limit what they can do through the air.
UCLA vs. Washington Under 50.5
The Huskies have one of the best defenses in college football according to S&P+. Washington has shut down every offense its faced this season, and none of their games have finished with 50 points or more yet.
UCLA is in full on rebuild mode in Chip Kelly’s first year at the helm. The Bruins don’t have the personnel to run the offense he wants, and Kelly has already went ahead with the freshmen movement. This offense is not running at the pace we are accustomed to, they are 86th in the country in terms of total plays, and Kelly seems content to slowly teach his young players his offense this season.
Chris Petersen has never been the type of coach to run it up, and he will call off the dogs early.
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