If you followed my total plays last week, all I can say is I’m sorry. This might not be baseball, but I still deserve a golden sombrero for going 0-4 and missing the mark wildly on two of my plays. The over in UCF/SMU and the under in Washington/UCLA were at least close and had a decent shot at getting the win throughout. However, the under in UMass/USF and the over in Virginia Tech/Notre Dame never really had a chance. There is no erasing the past and going backward at this point though, so the only way to move is forward.
Notre Dame vs. Pittsburgh Over 56
Ian Book has been hyped as the greatest thing since sliced bread, and the Irish have scored an average of 46.3 PPG over the last three weeks since he has taken over the starting job. Notre Dame has looked much livelier on offense with Book throwing the ball more accurately than his predecessor, allowing the running game to have more room to run.
The Panthers are 90th in the country in terms of total defense according to S&P+, and they certainly didn’t stop any of their last three opponents. North Carolina, UCF, and Syracuse all dropped a minimum of 37 points on this defense, and it’s hard to see Pitt performing much better against Notre Dame.
I’m counting on Notre Dame to not have much of a letdown on the offensive side of the ball. It would be easy to look back Pittsburgh in normal circumstances, but the Irish have a bye next week and the Panthers have a reputation as giant killers. For that reason, I expect Notre Dame’s offense to score some points, while Pitt scores enough to push this over.
Iowa State vs. West Virginia Over 57.5
Don’t let last week’s performance against Kansas fool you. West Virginia has one of the best offenses in all of college football. The Mountaineers only scored 38 points on the Jayhawks because Will Grier uncharacteristically threw three interceptions in the red zone and also fumbled inside of field goal range. West Virginia has a chance to score more this week as Grier is unlikely to make the same number of crushing mistakes. He is arguably the best quarterback in college football, and Iowa State doesn’t have the talent on defense to shut him down.
The Cyclones don’t have great offensive numbers this year. Kyle Kempt was hurt early on, and Zeb Noland to fill his shoes as the back-up. However, the emergence of Brock Purdy against Oklahoma State last week gave this offense a major shot in the arm, and they put up 48 points on the Cowboys. It’s unclear whether Purdy will start since Kempt is close to returning, but either way Noland shouldn’t be a factor and that should give Iowa State’s offense a boost. West Virginia doesn’t have a great defense, so I expect this one to be a shootout.
Penn State vs. Michigan State Under 54.5
Few teams are better at uglying up games than Michigan State. The Spartans have a knack for getting you to succumb to their brand of football, and I expect them to be able to do that against the Nittany Lions this week.
Penn State’s offense isn’t as great as you might think given its numbers. Trace McSorley continues to have accuracy issues, and he had to run often to make the Nittany Lions’ offense look good against Ohio State. The Spartans have a very good linebacking corps, and they will punish McSorley if he runs that often against them.
On the other side of the ball, Michigan State’s defense is going to have a hard time moving the ball. The running game has been unable to get going all year long, and Brian Lewerke has not been sharp through the air. They will be fortunate to score more than 20 points on Penn State.
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