My total plays continue to miss the mark, but at least I didn’t put a zero in the win column this week. I went 1-2 with total plays last week, as both Notre Dame-Pittsburgh and West Virginia-Iowa State fell far short of the total. My lone win was the under in Penn State vs. Michigan State, but I’m not taking any solace in winning just one game. This week, I’m out for vengeance, or at least a reversion to the mean. I’ve lost six of my last seven total plays, so it’s only a matter of time before I turn it around.
Texas Tech vs. Kansas Over 60.5
I’m rolling the dice a bit in this one, but the number is clearly suppressed by Texas Tech’s quarterback situation. If you watched last Thursday’s game against TCU, you know that the Red Raiders are stretched thin at the position. Alan Bowman sat out for after suffering a collapsed lung in the loss to West Virginia at the end of September, and McLane Carter continues to be hampered by a high ankle sprain.
Reading the tea leaves a bit, it looks like Bowman is set to return this week. He is back to practicing with the Red Raiders, and it seems likely that Kliff Kingsbury would want him to see the field against Kansas prior to a pivotal game against Iowa State the following week. The Red Raiders are in great shape to make it back to a bowl, and Kingsbury knows that every win is huge in terms of job security.
The Red Raiders offense has been significantly better with Bowman taking the snaps than with anyone else, and that has me loving the over here. Kansas’ offense has shown signs of life this season, and Texas Tech doesn’t have a defense that can completely hold them at bay. If Bowman is announced as the starter, I expect the line to go up another three to four points, so I’m getting in early here.
Hawai’i vs. Nevada Over 70
The Rainbow Warriors are one of the best stories of the year. They are already bowl eligible at 6-2, and they are playing exciting football after bringing back the Run and Shoot. This offense has been able to move the ball for much of the season, and there is no reason to think they would be slowed down by this Nevada defense. The Wolfpack are ranked 93rd in the country in total defense per S&P+, and they have had a very hard time stopping teams through the air.
On the other side of the ball, I expect Ty Gangi to have a big day against this Hawai’i defense. The offense fell flat without him in the lineup two weeks ago against Fresno State, but Gangi had a great game against Boise State last week and nearly led Nevada to the upset win. He had little trouble moving the ball through the air against this defense last year, and Hawai’i is one of the bottom 10 defenses in the nation this year.
Nebraska vs. Minnesota Under 56
This season is a wash for the Cornhuskers at this point. After an 0-6 start, Nebraska is looking towards 2019 and the rest of the season will be a youth movement. The Huskers may have tried to make a run for it if they pulled off a win over Northwestern last week, but after they lost a heartbreaker in overtime, it’s time to rip off the Band-aid completely.
Minnesota doesn’t off a good offense. The Golden Gophers have had trouble moving the ball all season, and they have lost two of their biggest weapons on offense. However, the defense has been very good, and that kept them hanging around against Ohio State last week. I see these teams playing a 20-17 or 24-20 type of game, and that makes the under a strong bet for me.
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