For the third straight week, I posted a losing record with my college football totals plays. At least, I was consistent last week though. I went 1-2 for the second straight week, and that has me somewhat frustrated. Nothing seems to be going right with my plays, as my one winner in the bunch was more than a little lucky. I’d like to say I’m due, but at this point my confidence is shook and it’s hard to say I’ll turn things around with certainty.
Pittsburgh vs. Duke Over 46
Neither one of these teams has a particularly great offense, but there are some reasons to bet the over. Duke has a pretty good quarterback in Daniel Jones, and he is coming off a bad week. He threw two interceptions in the Blue Devils’ loss to Virginia on Saturday, and it’s unlikely he’ll have such a bad performance against Pitt’s defense. The Panthers are ranked 89th in the country in total defense per S&P+.
Pittsburgh is coming off of a bye week, and the Panthers are sure to have some new wrinkles on offense. This team has not been bad running the ball, with leading rushers Qadree Ollison and Darrin Hall each averaging six yards or more per game, but they need to take some steps forward in the passing game. Kenny Pickett has yet to deliver on the promise he showed as a freshman, but he should have more free reign through the air after the bye.
UTEP vs UAB Under 49
The Miners have the longest losing streak in the country. They went 0-12 in 2017, and they have started off this season 0-7 under new coach Dana Dimel. There have been signs of improvement, but this is still a bad football team.
To make matters worse, it looked like they were turning the corner with Ryan Metz at the helm. Metz replaced Kai Locksley as the Miners quarterback after Locksley suffered a sprained ankle, and the offense moved the ball somewhat effectively with him under center. However, Metz was concussed last game, and he has been declared out indefinitely as he undergoes evaluations.
That will hurt a UTEP offense that was already going to have a hard time going against UAB’s stout defense. The Blazers have a defense ranked No. 35 in the country per S&P+, and they are coming off a big win over North Texas last week.
Like the Miners, the Blazers have a hard time moving the football. Bill Clark has this team relying on its defense and running game, and quarterback AJ Erdely won’t throw much here. I see UAB leaning hard on its defense to win a low scoring game to the tune of 24-10 or something similar.
California vs. Washington Under 45
Justin Wilcox has completely reshaped the Golden Bears in a very short period of time. Wilcox is more of a defensive mind than predecessors Sonny Dykes and Jeff Tedford, and he has California relying on its defense to win games. That has led to the air being taken out of the football, and Cal has the 18th best defense in the nation according to S&P+.
Ironically enough, the Golden Bears also have the 18th worst offense in the country. Cal has been unable to get much going on that side of the ball under Wilcox, and the Golden Bears will have an even harder time facing the Pac 12’s best defense by a mile in Washington this Saturday.
The book is out on Jake Browning. The senior quarterback out of California has seen his numbers drop in each of the last two seasons, and he has not been great this year. He is throwing more interceptions than usual, and that is not a good sign with a ground game that has sputtered.
This game will be a slow, grinding affair that won’t get over the number.
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