New Central Florida coach Josh Heupel has big shoes to fill as he embarks on his first year with the program. The Knights were the only undefeated FBS team last season, capping a perfect 13-0 campaign with a Peach Bowl victory over Auburn, the only team to beat CFP champion Alabama. The success came at a price, however, when Scott Frost was lured back to Nebraska to change the fortunes of that program. Heupel and the Knights jump right into AAC action with a Week 1 matchup against the Connecticut Huskies.
This contest in Week 1 will go down Thursday, August 30, 2018 at 7 p.m. ET at Pratt & Whitney Stadium. The game will air live on ESPNU.
NCAA Football Betting at BookMaker.eu
UCF -23
Connecticut +23
Over/Under 73
Odds Analysis
There are no preseason games in college football and we will see our share of mistakes by both sides, which gives value to the under. UConn covered the spread in last year’s game, but that was a healthy 38-point margin. The Knights opened as a 23-point road favorite and the public is backing the visitors. The total hit the board at a whopping 73.
Player to Watch
He’s not just the top offensive threat in the AAC, he could be the best player in the country and he is an early Heisman Trophy candidate. We’re talking about quarterback McKenzie Milton, of course, the guy who orchestrated the highest scoring offense in the FBS last season with 48.2 points. The Knights had a bunch of weapons, which is why they chewed up opposing defenses, but Milton was the ring leader.
He’s a dual threat who emerged as a top passer last season, finishing among the NCAA leaders in nearly every passing category. Milton tossed 37 touchdown passes with only nine picks and completed 67 percent of his throws. And he finished second to Heisman winner Baker Mayfield with a 179.3 rating. He also added 613 yards and eight scores on the ground, extending plays when there was a breakdown, which wasn’t often.
Coaching Angle
The Huskies turned to a familiar face to try and revive a program that has fallen on hard times. The first year of Randy Edsall’s second stint with the program looked a lot like all the others after he left for Maryland following the 2010 season. UConn won eight games that season for the third year in a row and won at least that many in each of his last four seasons.
Edsall led the program in its transition to the FBS in 2000 and turned them into a Big East power in a short period of time. The rebuild in Storrs will take time, though. He enters 2018 with an inexperienced roster and the team’s fifth offensive coordinator in five seasons. It won’t be easy, but Edsall knew that already.
Key Stat
There were some potent offenses in college football last season, but none were as good as the Knights, who led the country by scoring 48.2 points per outing. They put 73 on an overmatched Austin Peay squad, four times surpassed the 60-point mark and never scored less than 31 in a game. They were good and consistent.
Despite a coaching and system change, the Knights should again put up big numbers. As Missouri’s offensive coordinator last season, Heupel directed a group that scored 37.5 points and averaged over 500 yard of offense. And he has the top dual-threat quarterback in the country to run the show.
Free ATS Pick
The Huskies will take a few steps back before moving forward under Edsall, but many feel they have the right man for the job. And he knows what to expect after coaching UConn through the most successful seasons as a major college program.
After going without a loss last year, the Knights are the overwhelming favorite to win the AAC again. They have the talent but they did lose some key personnel that could make the transition to a new coach a little more difficult. Still, UConn isn’t ready to compete and their youthful roster will see what the champion is all about in the opener. It’s a tough way to start for the Huskies and I expect the Knights will cover the spread, even on the road.
NCAA Football Odds: UCF 48, Connecticut 20
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