True freshman don't often start at quarterback in major college football. In fact, the USC Trojans have only had three quarterbacks start as true freshmen during their illustrious history. All three true freshmen to have started previously (Rob Johnson, Carson Palmer and Matt Barkley) went on to play in the NFL. Will the same fate befall JT Daniels? We'll get to see the true frosh in action for the first time in Week 1 of the college football season when the Men of Troy take on the UNLV Rebels.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 1 game is set for Saturday, September 1, 2018 at 4 p.m. ET at the Los Angeles Coliseum.
NCAA Football Betting at BookMaker.eu
UNLV +26.5
USC -26.5
Over/Under 63.5
Odds Analysis
These Week 1 matchups often have a ton of line movement. In the case of the UNLV/USC game, though, the opening odds from back in June were relatively close to what we have now. BookMaker.eu initially opened up the Trojans at -26 on the CFB odds, a number they largely haven't swayed from much since the opening.
The Rebels reached as low as +25 over the course of the last two weeks, but the announcement of Daniels as the Trojans' starting quarterback has given the hosts a bit of a boost up to the current CFB betting line of -26.5.
The total has trended in an upward direction, rising from an opening number of 61.5 to 63.5 per the NCAAF betting odds.
Player to Watch
It's all about Daniels in his first collegiate game.
The freshman was the Gatorade National Player of the Year at Mater Dei High School just last season, and now, he'll fill the shoes of Sam Darnold, the man drafted third overall in the 2018 NFL Draft.
USC coach Clay Helton has spoken glowingly of his true freshman star, and he has preached that where he'll shine the brightest is in the pressure-packed situations of the game.
Still, the training wheels almost certainly have to be on Daniels at this point. He only stepped foot onto campus for the first time three months ago, and his ascent to the starting quarterback position could be even more about the lack of confidence Helton had in Matt Fink and Jack Sears than about the confidence he has in his true freshman.
Key Stat
5 – The number of consecutive games the Rebels have covered when facing spreads of at least 20 points.
UNLV's 2017 was one that will be remembered most for a 43-40 loss to Howard in Week 1. The Bison were 45-point underdogs heading into Sin City. Still, the Rebels fought back the next week and upset Idaho before "only" losing to Ohio State 54-21 as 40.5-point underdogs.
The Rebels turned things around in October and knocked off MWC West champion, Fresno State 26-16 as 22-point underdogs. You have to go back to 2015 to find the last time UNLV failed to cover as 20+ point underdogs.
Free ATS Pick
Though the Trojans are clearly the superior team and won't lose this game, there's far too much confidence in them to win this game by four touchdowns.
Let's remember that UNLV is returning a dynamic dual-threat passer (Armani Rogers), a man who ran for 1,336 yards last season (Lexington Thomas), a man who would have had at least 1,000 rushing yards in each of the last two seasons if not for injuries (Charles Williams) and four of its top five wide receivers.
In short, the Rebels are going to score some points. If they can find the end zone even twice, it's going to force Daniels to put 40+ on the board.
The Trojans only averaged 4.2 points per trip inside the opponents' 40-yard line last season, No. 92 in the nation, and that came with a legitimate NFL quarterback under center. If the Men of Troy haven't figured out their red zone woes, they'll be settling for too many field goals and not enough touchdowns to cover a spread of this magnitude.
It'll be a comfortable victory for USC in Week 1, but it won't be enough to beat this spread.
NCAA Football Odds: USC 38, UNLV 20
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