Week one action includes the unique situation of a Power Five school traveling to play on the road on the home field of a Group off Five program. While this is a rare occurrence the Syracuse Orange will make the trip to Kalamazoo, Michigan to face the Western Michigan Broncos. Syracuse is again picked for the basement of the Atlantic Coast Conference Atlantic division as third year head coach Dino Babers is yet to break through. Western Michigan is no longer “Rowing the Boat” and took a big step back last year following the departure of PJ Fleck for the riches of the Big Ten and Minnesota.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 1 game is set for Friday, August 31, 2018, at 6 p.m. ET at Waldo Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Syracuse -6
Western Michigan +6
Over/Under 64.5
Odds Analysis
There has not been much betting activity or movement yet on this game. The oddsmaker correctly assessed that the public would be more inclined to go with the name brand Power Five team, Syracuse, even in a potential trap scenario at a Group of Five team that may be competitive in Western Michigan.
Coaching Angle
Dino Babers faces a critical third season on the job at Syracuse. As head coach he has posted back to back 4-8 records. For sure, Babers inherited a difficult assignment as this program has been down and out for more than a decade and lacks the support and commitment of other schools in the ACC. Babers is yet to be able to get Syracuse out of a rut in which they have made only three minor bowls since 2005 and have posted three consecutive 4-8 marks. Babers has improved recruiting and its possible he can reach six wins to bowl this year. But will Syracuse be patient for the long haul?
Tim Lester had the unenviable task of replacing PJ Fleck as head coach of Western Michigan. Lester went 6-6 last year following the Broncos Dream Season in which Fleck led them to the Cotton Bowl. Lester has decided to take over as offensive coordinator himself for 2018, which fits his coaching background. Beyond that he inherits an experienced and talented unit. Western Michigan was injury ravaged last year but that did provide plenty of opportunities for its current roster to gain valuable playing experience.
Key Trends
Syracuse has been an unreliable betting commodity as a favorite in recent years. The Orange have covered just five of their last 11 games when made the favorite as four of their last five in that role have gone over the total. The Orange have done even worse as a road chalk with just three payouts and seven losses in that role with just one of their last six games as road chalks going under the total.
Overall Western Michigan has been profitable as an underdog with five covers in their last nine games when getting points. The Broncos have also gone over the total in four of their last five games when posted as the underdog. Western Michigan has been an effective home dog at Waldo Stadium with a mark of six payouts in their last nine matchups in that role. Additionally, 11 of their last 12 games as home pups went over the total.
Matchup to Watch
Both teams boast potentially explosive offenses. But Neither side has anything close to a solid defense. All of which means this one could prove to be a shootout. The ultimate matchup is between capable quarterbacks Jon Wassink of the Broncos and Eric Dungey of the Orange. Where Western Michigan may have the edge is with their veteran offensive line.
Free ATS Pick
Syracuse is a name brand pick for the betting public. But their record is suspect when laying points, especially on the road. Western Michigan is a capable home dog with enough offense to exploit the leaky Syracuse defense. Add a fired-up home crowd on Friday night and you have the potential for fireworks!
College Football Odds: Western Michigan 35, Syracuse 31
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