With Week One finally here the top ranked Alabama Crimson Tide will be going for their sixth national championship since 2009 under head coach Nick Saban, who must be regarded as the greatest college football coach of all time. Saban has been coy about who will be his starting quarterback but regardless of whether its Jalen Hurts or Tua Tagovailoa the Tide is expected to romp towards a playoff berth at bare minimum. Meanwhile the Louisville Cardinals are moving on as Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Lamar Jackson is now in the NFL. Petrino faces even bigger challenges in replacing nine defensive starters.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 1 game is set for Saturday, September 1, 2018, at 8 p.m. ET at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida. This matchup can be viewed on ABC.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Louisville +25
Alabama -25
Over/Under 60
Odds Analysis
The line has not moved as far as the side but there has been major movement on the total which originally opened at 53.5. This is due to the belief that Louisville’s defense may not be able to stop the Crimson Tide and send the game soaring over the number, especially since Petrino teams can usually put points on the board themselves.
Jalen or Tua?
Alabama would not have made the College Football Playoff Championship without the efforts of Jalen Hurts. Conversely, they would not have won the National Championship Game over Georgia were it not for Tua Tagovailoa. Camp insiders have repeatedly said the players want Tua under center and that he is the clearly superior player. Yet Saban is hesitant to cut ties with Hurts due to his superior experience and the likelihood that he will make better decisions most plays.
Love Not so Great the Second Time Around
Bobby Petrino has done good but not great in his second tour of duty at Louisville. In four seasons he has a record of 34-18 with a top finish of ninth in the country in 2016, when Jackson won the Heisman Trophy. Petrino was 41-9 in his first stint at the Ville from 2003 through 2006 but the Cardinals were not members of the Atlantic Coast Conference back then. The challenges are far greater in the ACC.
Matchup to Watch
Alabama is totally loaded at every offensive position. This does not bode well for the Louisville defense that was not exactly dominant before it lost nine starters this past offseason. Furthermore, Louisville now has its third new defensive coordinator under Petrino in the person of Brian Van Gorder, who was totally discredited and fired at Notre Dame after his defenses there were rendered helpless at the end. Van Gorder lacks anywhere near the talent to work with that he had while under the Golden Dome.
Players to Watch
Alabama running back Damien Harris will be gunning for this third consecutive 1000-yard rushing season for the Crimson Tide. The Bama defensive line is anchored by stalwarts Raekwon Davis and Isaiah Buggs. Linebackers Terrell Lewis, Christian Miller and Anfernee Jennings make for some of the best outside linebackers in the nation.
Key Trends
This line is in Alabama’s sweet spot. As a favorite of between 24 and 30 points the Crimson Tide has ruled the Cashier’s Cage with a record of 13 payouts in their last 14 games. Six of their last eight in that role have gone over the total. Louisville has been an exceptional dog of seven or more points with nine payouts in their last 11 on that situation. Three of their last five in that role have gone over the total.
Free ATS Pick
Louisville must open the season facing massive transition and a multitude of unknowns at quarterback and on defense. The timing could not be worse for an opener against the most established power team in the land. There is way too much uncertainty about the Cardinals, especially against the national champs.
College Football Odds: Alabama 42, Louisville 10
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