Who’s ready for a good old-fashioned shootout? That’s what you should expect when the Mississippi Rebels and Texas Tech Red Raiders square off in Week 1 action. Texas Tech is in a make or break season with Kliff Kingsbury. Kingsbury started off strong in his first year in Lubbock, posting an 8-5 record, but he has failed to win more than seven games in a season since that point. Fans and the administration are growing restless with their former star quarterback, and another middling year might be Kingsbury’s last.
Meanwhile, Mississippi’s Matt Luke is entering his first full season as the head coach of the Rebels. Luke became the Rebels’ interim coach in July 2017 after Hugh Freeze abruptly resigned, and he guided the program to a 6-6 record despite a looming NCAA investigation and a myriad of other off-field issues. He will look to reward the school’s faith with a solid first year.
This contest in Week 1 will go down Saturday, September 1, 2018 at 12 p.m. ET at Reliant Stadium in Houston, Texas.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Mississippi +2
Texas Tech -2
Over/Under 67.5
Odds Analysis
Originally, Mississippi was the favorite per the CFB betting line in this one. The Rebels opened as a one-point favorite, and the CFB odds have moved to make the Red Raiders the favorite instead.
The total has really taken off. Offshore sportsbooks opened the over/under for this game at 62, yet the college football betting line has gone up 5.5 points. That’s some serious movement and indicative of a large amount of action from sharps.
Key Stat
Over the last two decades, the thing that has usually sunk Texas Tech is a poor defense. The Red Raiders have had some atrocious seasons on defense, even during the best years of the Mike Leach era. They ranked outside the top 100 in total defense for the entirety of Kingsbury’s tenure until last season, and that has Red Raiders fans cautiously optimistic about 2018.
Nearly all of last year’s defense is back, and that means the Red Raiders could post their best defensive numbers in quite some time. Don’t get me wrong, this is a bend-but-don’t-break defense, yet there is a lot of reason to be excited about this unit, especially if you look at stats guru Bill Connelly’s projections.
Matchup to Watch
Although 2017 was one of the worst years in the history of Ole Miss football for off the field reasons, the product on the field wasn’t that bad. Luke proved to be a solid coach, and he might lead the Rebels to six wins again in 2018. However, there are some major concerns about the depth of this team.
Most members of the 2017 recruiting class are playing football at another program. The two-year bowl ban and other sanctions imposed by the NCAA meant that players were free to transfer if they so pleased, and many of the younger players grabbed that opportunity. That has led to a very thin two-deep, and this is something that a hurry-up offense can exploit on defense, especially along the defensive line. If Texas Tech can run 75 plays on offense, it will have a great chance of winning this game.
Free ATS Pick
The sanctions also allowed starting quarterback Shea Patterson and wide receiver Van Jefferson to leave, so the offense won’t be as good as what we saw last year in Oxford. Ole Miss’ offense will still put up some points, yet that won’t be enough in the opener.
Texas Tech’s defense is good enough to stop Ole Miss’ offense from lighting up the scoreboard, while the Red Raiders’ offense will tear it up in the second half. The big question is replacing star quarterback Pat Mahomes, but Texas Tech has never seemed to have trouble finding an effective passer for this offense. I like the Red Raiders here, and my best bet will be Texas Tech in the second half.
College Football Odds: Texas Tech 41, Mississippi 24
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