The last time the Iowa Hawkeyes hosted the Northern Illinois Huskies, it was the beginning of another fantastic season for Northern Illinois. The Huskies were coming off an undefeated regular season and an Orange Bowl appearance, and they were aiming to repeat the feat. Northern Illinois upset Iowa as an underdog per the CFB odds, and the Huskies went on to finish the regular season undefeated once more. The Huskies are a popular upset pick in Week 1 of the 2018 season, and they will look to reward bettors once more.
Watch this Week 1 matchup live on Saturday, September 1, 2018, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Northern Illinois +10.5
Iowa -10.5
Over/Under 48.5
Odds Analysis
Kirk Ferentz is an institution at this point. Ferentz is entering his 20th season in charge of Iowa, and he is the longest tenured coach in college football. During the early part of the decade, there were rumblings about whether or not he was still the right man for the job, but Iowa is 28-12 over the last three seasons. He recently signed another large extension, ensuring that he will be in Iowa City for years to come.
This game has been one of the biggest movers on the CFB betting odds over the last week. Iowa was originally favored by 14.5 points on the CFB betting line, and that led to a flurry of action on Northern Illinois. The NCAAF betting line dropped down to 9.5 on Monday, but it has since gone back up and stabilized at 10.5.
The total has seen some movement too. The over/under opened at 51 per the NCAA betting odds, and it has since dropped down to 48.5.
Player to Watch
Nate Stanley had a breakout season in his first year as Iowa’s starting quarterback. Stanley is not a mobile threat as so many college quarterbacks are these days, but he doesn’t need to be considering how talented of a passer he has proven to be.
Stanley saved his best for when the spotlight was the brightest. He completed 65.9 percent of his passes for 333 yards and five touchdowns in a win at rival Iowa State, but the performance that put him on the map was Ohio State. In that game, Stanley completed 64.5 percent of his passes for 226 yards and five touchdowns. He shined on the road against Nebraska at the end of the season too, proving that he was one of the top quarterbacks in the Big Ten.
Key Stat
The formula for Northern Illinois over the years has been simple, run the ball and play great defense. That is what we will see from the Huskies this season, and that defense could be the best Group of Five defense in the nation.
According to SB Nation’s Bill Connelly, Northern Illinois defensive linemen recorded 60 tackles for loss and 30 sacks in 2017. Those are incredible numbers, and most of that production is returning in 2018. Sutton Smith is a terror along the defensive line, and he will look to show his mettle against an Iowa offensive line that might be the best unit he faces this year.
Free ATS Pick
The key to this game will be Stanley. Iowa likes to run a lot of play action, and he thrived off of it last season. However, the Hawkeyes might not be able to get much of a running game going against this front seven. That will put the onus on Stanley to open things up through the air if Iowa is going to win this game. I think that Stanley will be able to do just enough to beat a dangerous Northern Illinois team, but Iowa is on upset alert this week.
College Football Odds: Iowa 20, Northern Illinois 17
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