No fan of the Appalachian State Mountaineers will ever forget the team’s first game on the Big Ten Network. At the time, Appalachian State was an FCS team, but the Mountaineers soon launched themselves into the national consciousness. The Mountaineers pulled off one of the most stunning upsets ever when they beat No. 5 Michigan 34-32 in Ann Arbor. It set the program on a crash course with the FBS, where it has been one of the best Group of Five teams since moving up to the FBS five years ago. Appalachian State is again opening its season on the Big Ten Network, and the Penn State Nittany Lions are looking to avoid what would be a disastrous Week 1 upset.
Watch this Week 1 matchup live on Saturday, September 1, 2018, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Appalachian State +23.5
Penn State -23.5
Over/Under 69
Odds Analysis
There has been only slight movement on the side in this game since the CFB betting line opened. Penn State has been a 23.5 or 24-point favorite here, and it’s unlikely that late money moves this number too strongly one way or the other.
The total is a different story. The NCAAF betting odds initially had this total at 57, but it has since dropped down to 54. That movement is a little curious since Appalachian State only returns five defensive starters from last season, while Penn State only returns three, but Mountaineers’ season openers are generally low scoring. Since joining the FBS, four of their five season openers have had 50 points or less scored in them.
Player to Watch
This is Trace McSorley’s team now. With Saquon Barkley playing on Sundays this year, McSorley will be the face of the Nittany Lions. The senior quarterback has been pretty great in his own right over his last two seasons in James Franklin’s offense. McSorley threw for over 3,500 yards in both 2016 and 2017, and he evolved from a deep ball passer to a more efficient quarterback during that timeframe.
McSorley knows how to use his legs to make things happen too. He was Penn State’s second-leading rusher in 2017 with 491 yards and 11 touchdowns, and that added another layer to the Nittany Lions’ attack.
There is a big question looming over McSorley and the Penn State offense coming into 2018 though. How much will they miss Joe Moorhead? Moorhead was the team’s offensive coordinator during their incredible 2016 and 2017 campaigns, but he left to take the head coaching job at Mississippi State this offseason. Penn State promoted from within by naming Ricky Rahne the new offensive coordinator, and he might air it out more as he has been Franklin’s passing game coordinator since arriving on campus.
Matchup to Watch
Appalachian State head coach Scott Satterfield wants to run the ball as much as possible against Penn State. The Mountaineers are breaking in a new quarterback in Zac Thomas, and they have a First Team All-Sun Belt running back returning in Jalin Moore. Moore was one of the nation’s more underrated running backs in 2017, averaging 5.7 yards per carry and finding the end zone 12 times. However, it may take some time for the running game to find its footing in 2018.
The offensive line returns three starters from last season, but there is only one upperclassman projected to start. That bodes well for the Mountaineers in future seasons, yet it means they may have a hard time running the ball against Penn State here. The three starters that the Nittany Lions’ defense returns are all in the front seven, and there is plenty of size up front.
Free ATS Pick
There are two sharp plays considering the CFB betting odds for this game. The first is the under. There is still some value even though the line has already moved somewhat. Betting on Penn State to cover is the better option though. Franklin will want to prove something in his first game without Moorhead, and he has a reputation for running it up if the opportunity arises. It’s a little counterintuitive to play the favorite and the under, but I don’t see the Mountaineers finding much success on offense.
College Football Odds: Penn State 38, Appalachian State 10
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