Among the most attractive Friday night openers for Week One is the matchup between the Duke Blue Devils and the visiting Army Black Knights. These are two college football programs regarded for winning despite respectively strong academic requirements at their schools which are also nothing close to being football factories. Despite that both teams have enjoyed recent success and appear to be set to sustain it for 2018. Yet their matchup is also one of opposites as far as offensive styles and ability.
Watch this Week 1 matchup live on Friday, August 31, 2018, at 7 p.m. ET from Wallace Wade Stadium. The game can be seen on ESPNU.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Army +14
Duke -14
Over/Under 46
Odds Analysis
Duke opened as a 11.5-point favorite but that has been quickly bet up to 14 points. Much of this is based on Duke’s reputation for having an excellent passing game and the fact that the Blue Devils are a Power Five team at home going up against a Group of Five visitor. Clearly much of this movement is based on public perception.
Coaching Angle
Few coaches have done more with less than Army’s Jeff Monken and Duke’s David Cutcliffe. Monken uses the option offense for success while Cutcliffe is a master of the passing game.
Monken took over a program in 2014 that was underfunded and had went to just one bowl game from 1997 through 2015. Methodically Monken has triggered strong facility improvements and improved recruiting. Monken has led Army to back to back seasons that ended with bowl victories. Last year’s 10-3 team posted the best record since the 1996 Black Knights went 10-2.
Cutcliffe took over a program with similar issues of losing and lack of support. Duke gave him the patience that was needed and was rewarded with a berth in the ACC Championship Game in his sixth season on the job in 2013. Overall Duke has bowled in five of their last six seasons and won the Quick Lane Bowl last year.
Key Trends
Army has been a decent betting value as a road dog with five payouts in their last eight in that tole with 10 of their last 12 as road pups also going under the total. As a road dog of ten or more points Army has covered four of their last five. Eight of their last nine in that situation have also gone under the total.
The Blue Devils have covered the spread in just four of their last ten games as a home chalk with seven of their last eight in that role going under the number. But as a double-digit home chalk Duke has been a strong betting value. In fact, the Blue Devils have lost just two of their last 17 games vs. the line as double-digit home favorites. Six of their last ten in that position have gone over the total.
Duke has come away with the cash in four of their last six games against Army with the last three meetings between these two teams staying under the number. The Blue Devils have paid in two of their last three home games against Army. This is the fourth consecutive season that Army and Duke have met.
Revenge Angle
Last year Army scored a 21-16 home win and payout over Duke as a 3.5-point dog with the game staying far under the total of 50.5. The setback did much to set Duke up for having to scramble for a bowl game the final few weeks of the season. Duke’s passing game was held in check by Army while the Black Knights thrashed the Blue Devils for 226 yards rushing. It was an embarrassing performance by a flat Duke team.
Free ATS Pick
Duke has the revenge angle and a proven ability to get the money as a double-digit home chalk and against the Black Knights at Wallace Wade Stadium.
College Football Odds: Duke 31, Army 14
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