Even though it is Week One the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors have already posted a win following their “Week Zero” annihilation of Colorado State in what was certainly a nice respite for their storm ravaged state. For the Navy Midshipmen yet another winning season and bowl berth is the expectation for a program that is among the most consistent in the country. Both the run and shoot Rainbow Warriors and option-oriented Midshipmen are stark contrasts to each other. This makes for a challenging handicap.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 1 game is set for Saturday, September 1, 2018, at 11 p.m. ET at Aloha Stadium. This matchup can be viewed on CBSSN.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Navy -11
Hawaii +11
Over/Under 59
Odds Analysis
Navy opened as a 15.5-point favorite but that was immediately bet down after Hawaii’s stunning triumph at Colorado State. This could also be an overreaction to that performance as Colorado State was exposed to be far weaker than expected. There are some bargain hunters that will swoop in on Navy at the reduced price.
Hawaii Says “Aloha” Last Week!
Hawaii was a 17-point underdog at Colorado State last week before bolting out to a 37-7 lead before a final score of 43-34. Cole McDonald was 26 for 37 passing with 418 yards and three touchdowns with an eye-popping 191.9 rating for the game. McDonald added 96 more yards rushing and two additional touchdowns for one of the greatest performances in Hawaii history.
Matchup to Watch
Malcolm Perry takes over the Navy option on a full-time basis as quarterback after impressing everyone with spot duty last year in which he ran for 646 yards and seven touchdowns in three starts. Head coach Ken Niumatalolo says Perry is the most dynamic runner he has had in his 11 seasons as head coach. Navy has seven new starters on defense after showing marked improvement last year.
Although a lot of yards were in “garbage time” the questionable Hawaii defense allowed a whopping 653 yards of total offense last week at Colorado State. New defensive coordinator Corey Batoon inherited a unit that finished 105th in the country last year.
Letdown for Rainbow Warriors?
Hawaii’s win last week was totally unexpected. Colorado State didn’t know what hit them. It was also an emotional win considering the recent storms in Hawaii. Beyond that, it revealed that the new run and shoot with McDonald under center has plenty of promise. But after a near perfect performance at Colorado State can Hawaii maintain such a high level.
Key Trends
Navy has been an exceptionally good betting favorite away from home. In fact, the Midshipmen have come away with the cash in seven of their last nine away games when favored. Three of their last five in that role have also gone over the total. Even more impressive is the Midshipmen’s record of six consecutive payouts as road chalks of seven or more points. Just two of their last six in that situation have gone over the total.
Hawaii on the other hand has been a poor betting value as a home dog. In fact, the Rainbow Warriors have covered just three of their last 13 as pups at Aloha Stadium with four of their last six in that role going over the total.
Even worse is the fact that Hawaii has failed to cover five of their last six as home dogs of seven or more points. However, Hawaii has covered their last three meetings with Navy.
Free ATS Pick
Props to Hawaii for their impressive new look and start last week. However, Navy is a much more solid and consistent program than Colorado State. The famed Midshipmen option attack should cut Hawaii to ribbons. This game could become a high scoring affair based on the poor Hawaii defense and its run and shoot offense going up against the relatively inexperienced but steady Navy defense. Still, the Midshipmen should pull away at the end. Beyond that the public is in a frenzy in reaction to Hawaii’s win last week making Navy the contrarian call.
College Football Odds: Navy 45, Hawaii 30
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