Mark Stoops has continued to slowly lead the Kentucky Wildcats in the right direction. The longest-tenured head coach in the SEC East has rebuilt this program from the ground up, and Kentucky is looking to make it to a bowl game for the third straight season in 2018. The Wildcats will face a somewhat tough opponent in their Week 1 opener though, when the Central Michigan Chippewas come to town. Central Michigan went 8-5 last season and knocked off a Power Five opponent in non-conference play. Kentucky is trying to avoid a similar fate.
Watch this Week 1 matchup live on Saturday, September 1, 2018, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Commonwealth Stadium in Lexington, Kentucky.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Central Michigan +17
Kentucky -17
Over/Under 49
Odds Analysis
Although the Chippewas are coming off of an 8-5 season, many are expecting them to take a massive step back in 2018. Bill Connelly’s S&P+ ratings have Central Michigan dropping from 79th to 116th this season, and Phil Steele is projecting the Chips to finish dead least in the MAC West.
The CFB betting odds have not changed with regards to the side in this one. Kentucky opened as a 17-point favorite on the NCAAF betting line, and the Wildcats remain a 17-point favorite as of Tuesday. However, the total has moved slightly. The under has received a bit of a nudge from the makers of the NCAAF betting odds, dropping from 50.5 to 49.
Player to Watch
Central Michigan’s offense is going to rely heavily on Jonathan Ward this offseason. Ward represents the bulk of the team’s returning production, and the Second Team All-MAC selection is the Chippewas’ leading returning rusher and receiver. Ward cracked 1,000 yards and scored 10 touchdowns on the ground last season and caught 48 passes for 470 yards and three scores out of the backfield as well.
Every other major weapon from last season is gone. Michigan transfer Shane Morris finished up his eligibility at Central Michigan, and the top three receivers from 2017 are gone too. Ward will be running behind an offensive line with four seniors, but 6’7 QB Tony Poljan is unproven and played a bit of wide receiver last year.
Matchup to Watch
The Wildcats are breaking in a new quarterback of their own in JUCO transfer Terry Wilson, so they will look to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible.
That’s a wise decision when you have a running back that is as great as Benny Snell. Snell ran for over 1,300 yards and 19 touchdowns on his way to receiving all-SEC accolades in 2017. He might be the most underrated running back in the country, and he gashed most opponents he faced, particularly at the end of the year. Snell averaged six yards or more per carry in four of his last five regular season games, with the one outlier being Georgia.
Kentucky’s offensive line returns four of five starters as well, and this running game could really take off in 2018 after how they ended last season.
Free ATS Pick
The Chippewas are going to have a hard time scoring in this one. It’s going to take some time for Poljan to get comfortable taking snaps, and Kentucky will load up the box to stop the run. The Wildcats run defense was pretty good last year, and they will bottle up Ward throughout the game.
On the other side of the ball, Snell is going to tear up Central Michigan’s defense. Snell is already the best running back in program history, and he is primed to explode in 2018. Look for him to run for 180 yards and a few touchdowns in a rout of Central Michigan. Kentucky is one of my top bets of the opening week.
College Football Odds: Kentucky 41, Central Michigan 13
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