Week One features one of the top favorites of the Big Ten going up against a team and coach facing a must win season. The Michigan State Spartans did much to reclaim respect and credibility with a strong 10-win season that followed the worst ever year for head coach Mark Dantonio since his arrival in 2007. For the Utah State Aggies, they have fallen off the heights of 30 wins in three years from 2012 through 2014. Three consecutive losing seasons have head coach Matt Wells facing a more skeptical fan base that believes he built up his early success with predecessor Gary Andersen’s players.
This contest in Week 1 will go down Friday, August 31, 2018 at 7 p.m. ET at Stanford Stadium. The game can be seen on Big Ten Network.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Utah State +22.5
Michigan State -22.5
Over/Under 49.5
Odds Analysis
This game opened with Michigan State as a 25.5-point favorite before bargain hunters jumped on the Aggies. This is based on the perception of Michigan State being a good team that is solid but lacking offensive explosion.
Matchup to Watch
While Utah State returns 16 starters with solid talent the fact remains that they are picked for fourth place in the Mountain West Conference Mountain Division. Further the level of play and results have deteriorated under Matt Wells as shown by the fact they have not topped six wins in the past three seasons.
Michigan State is a potential Top Ten in the nation team that returns 19 starters from a team that did so much to re-establish the toughness of the program last year. Indeed 2017 was a season of resurgence after a rock bottom 2016 in which Sparty finished 3-9 and had the further black cloud of off field discipline issues. On offense the Spartans have the look of a top ten team that is far more explosive than their image. A total of ten starters return including 50-catch receivers Felton Davis and Darrell Stewart.
Player to Watch
Without question a major contributor to getting MSU back on track was junior quarterback Brian Lewerke. Unlike many previous MSU quarterbacks he has the mobility to avoid trouble without sacrificing the ability to maintain consistent passing. In addition, Lewerke has great vision and his versatility frustrates defenses by keeping them off balance. The signal caller enters the 2018 as a candidate for the Maxwell, Davey O’Brien, Walter Camp, Johnny Unitas Golden Arm, and Manning Awards.
Coaching Angle
Matt Wells has to be feeling the pressure. He took over after Gary Andersen went 11-2 and had initial success with 20 wins, including two bowls, in his first two seasons. But as Andersen’s players have departed so too have the wins.
Key Trends
Utah State has been a subpar betting value as a road dog with a mark of 3-4 against the spread in that role. The Aggies have gone under the total in 13 of their last 15 games as road pups. As a double-digit road dog Utah State has lost nine of their last 15 vs. the line with 12 of their last 14 in that situation also going under the total.
Michigan State has been a powerful big favorite however. To show the Spartans have paid out in 15 of their last 20 home games when laying out 20 or more points. Seven of their last nine as chalks of 20 or more at Spartan Stadium have also gone over the total. Overall as home chalks the Spartans have lost just six of their last 20 against the number. MSU has gone under the total in just five of their last 18 home games as favorites.
Free ATS Pick
Michigan State has the superior talent and depth plus the proven marks of covering big numbers at Spartan Stadium. Utah State has done little to inspire confidence for this situation.
College Football Odds: Michigan State 42, Utah State 17
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