The California Golden Bears started the Justin Wilcox era on the right foot. Wilcox’s first game as head coach of the Golden Bears last year was a win over these North Carolina Tar Heels. California was a sizeable 13.5-point underdog in the game per the CFB betting odds, but Ross Bowers proved to be too much for this secondary. UNC would love to return the favorite and get an important non-conference road victory in Week 1 of the 2018 campaign.
This matchup in Week 1 will take place on Saturday, September 1, 2018, at 4 p.m. ET at California Memorial Stadium in Berkeley, California.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
North Carolina +7
California -7
Over/Under 61
Odds Analysis
North Carolina’s hopes of pulling off an upset took a major hit three weeks ago, when it was announced that 11 players would be suspended for the opener against Cal. Quarterbacks Chazz Surratt and Jack Davidson, offensive linemen Quiron Johnson, Jordan Tucker, Brian Anderson, Jonah Melton, wide receiver Beau Corrales, defensive backs Greg Ross and Tre Shaw, and defensive linemen Malik Carney and Tyrone Hopper will all be out for this game. That is a blow to their chances, but the bulk of those players are reserves, so the losses won’t hurt too badly.
You would think that announcing all those suspensions would have moved the number in favor of Cal since then, but you’d be wrong. Although there was an initial push in the CFB betting odds following the news, the Golden Bears are shorter favorites than where the line started. Cal was originally an 8.5-point favorite, and the NCAAF betting line is now down to seven.
Conversely, the total has moved up a bit since open. The over/under was originally 58.5, but it has since shot up to 61 per the CFB betting line.
Coaching Angle
Cal took a chance on Wilcox, and Wilcox subsequently took a chance on his coaching staff. Wilcox had bounced around as the defensive coordinator for five different schools prior to landing his first head coaching gig, and he has shored things up defensively for a program that was notorious for playing shootouts.
He made a great hire in defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter, but he rolled the dice on his offensive coordinator. Wilcox reached down to the FCS to snare Beau Baldwin away from Eastern Washington, and the move might pay huge dividends.
Baldwin was known for running a lot of spread at Eastern Washington, and he will look to open things up even more with a year under his belt. This team will be all about speed, but unfortunately, they lost three receivers in transfers this offseason.
Key Stat
North Carolina’s 2017 season was an absolute disaster. The Tar Heels lost 98 percent of their 2016 production according to Tar Heel Blog’s Chad Floyd, so a step back was in order. However, UNC completely bottomed out as injuries crippled the team all season long. UNC had an incredible 34 scholarship players miss games due to injuries, and half of those were of the season-ending variety. The good news is that those injuries gave a lot of those reserves playing time, and that will help the depth in 2018.
Free ATS Pick
With Surratt suspended, Nathan Elliott will again be North Carolina’s starting quarterback for at least the first four games of the season. Elliott started the final four games of the season for UNC last year, and while he is a capable runner, he is not a very accurate passer. He completed under 50 percent of his passes in losses to Miami and North Carolina State, and that’s worrisome heading into this one.
This is a tough one to call, but the best bet is probably Cal. Cal has more continuity, and Wilcox is quickly making a name for himself in coaching circles.
College Football Odds: California 31, North Carolina 20
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