Week one’s best matchup for Thursday night is a pair of dark horse teams looking to surprise in the Big Ten West Division. The Purdue Boilermakers are back! In just one season on the job head coach Jeff Brohm gave this slumping program its belief again. Purdue was tough, smart and productive en route to a surprise 7-6 record capped off with a Foster Farms Bowl win last year. The Northwestern Wildcats are coming off their second ten-win season in three years as they finished 10-3 and as Music City Bowl champs. Head coach Pat Fitzgerald has led this program to its greatest heights since he was a linebacker on the 1995 Rose Bowl team.
Watch this Week 1 matchup live on Thursday, August 30, 2018 at 8 p.m. ET at Ross Ade Stadium with coverage on ESPN.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Northwestern Wildcats +3.5
Purdue Boilermakers -3.5
Over/Under (Check Back Later)
Odds Analysis
The linemaker is basically accounting for Purdue being at home and not much more. These two teams are considered equals and most publications have them picked to finish third or fourth in the Big Ten West.
Coaching Angle
Although Purdue’s Jeff Brohm and Northwestern’s Pat Fitzgerald are not highly celebrated en masse serious college football fans have immense respect for them both.
What Brohm did last year was absolutely stunning as he took over a demoralized Boilermaker team suffering from fan apathy and jumpstarted the entire program in short order. Best of all he capitalized on the strong season with significantly better recruiting and facility upgrades.
Speaking of facilities, the Wildcats new training center may be the best in the country. Settled on the shores of Lake Michigan it lacks for nothing. This is a tribute to Fitzgerald, who is among the most revered Northwestern alums of all time.
Matchup to Watch
Brohm arrived at Purdue looking to reestablish its credentials as “Quarterback U.” Both veteran David Blough and junior Elijah Sindelar are expected to see playing time as was the case last year when Blough began the year as starter before an ankle injury on November 4. What was most amazing was their defensive improvement from 117th in points allowed for 2016 to 24th last year. However, eight significant players from that group are gone.
Northwestern is needing quarterback Clayton Thorson to return to health after tearing his ACFL last year in the bowl game. Northwestern’s All Time Leading rusher Justin Jackson is a major loss that won’t be easy to replace. The offensive line returns four starters. On Defense there are plenty of All Big Ten candidate led by the pass rushing tandem of Joe Gaziano and Samdup Miller.
Key Trends
Northwestern has covered seven of their last ten on the road with just one of their last seven road games going under the total. As a road dog the Wildcats have paid out in 10 of their last 11 with just three of their last 12 as road dogs going under the total.
Purdue has been a successful home favorite with just one loss against the spread in their last eight in that role. Three of their last five as home chalks went over the total.
In this head to head series Northwestern has paid out in the last two meetings including last year’s 23-13 win as six-point home chalks. That game stayed well under the total of 48.5 and maintained the trend of three of the last four in this series going under the number.
Key Stat
Departed Northwestern back Justin Jackson ran for 1311 yards and 11 touchdowns last year. Where does Fitzgerald turn for that type of production?
Free ATS Pick
In a matchup this even the dog is usually the smart play. Add in all of the new personnel on Purdue’s defense and the veteran Wildcats make for a solid pick, especially considering their proven track record as road dogs. They hold a strong defensive advantage in this one.
College Football Odds: Northwestern 21, Purdue 17
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