Friday night action for Week One includes a team that continues to garner respect and betting activity and the highest expectations in the history of their program. The Wisconsin Badgers were one touchdown shy of making the College Football Playoff last December and have almost all of their offense back including all five starters from what is considered to be the best offensive line in the country. For the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers an opening game at Madtown may pay a lot of bills but at the cost of a lot of bruises both physically and emotionally.
This matchup in Week 1 will take place on Friday, August 31, 2018, at 9 p.m. ET at Camp Randall Stadium. ESPN is providing the telecast of this game.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Western Kentucky +34.5
Wisconsin -34.5
Over/Under 51
Odds Analysis
This line has not moved much at all and is no surprise. It’s completely understandable that powerful Wisconsin would be a huge chalk against a Western Kentucky team that dropped significantly last season after previous head coach Jeff Brohm’s departure for Purdue.
Coaching Angle
If ever there was a perfect match of coach and school it is Paul Chryst at the University of Wisconsin. Chryst was a quarterback for the Badgers in the 1980’s and in fact grew up in Madison. He was a Badgers assistant and offensive coordinator under Brett Bielema with some of the best Badgers teams ever. His three years on the job have seen the program take off like a meteor. Chryst has gone 10-3, 11-3, and 13-1 last year. The Badgers had a final ranking of ninth in 2016 and seventh in 2017. Best of all Chryst has re-established Wisconsin as “O-Line U” with the best and deepest offensive line in the land. All of this success has led to the best recruiting classes in UW history.
Mike Sanford Jr had a tough act to follow in replacing Jeff Brohm at Western Kentucky. WKU went 12-2 in 2015 and 11-3 in 2016. Sanford’s first season was a thud at 6-7 as he paled in comparison and must now scramble to get the program back on track.
Players to Watch
The Badgers have an embarrassment of riches in this matchup against Western Kentucky. Leading a stout defense is senior linebacker TJ Edwards. Running back Jonathan Taylor ran for nearly 2000 yards as a freshman last year. Junior quarterback Alex Hornibrook had interception issues for sure but overcame that with clutch passing when it mattered most and was stellar in the Badgers Orange Bowl Game win over Miami. All three are candidates for a multitude of national honors. Best of all Beau Benzschawel, Tyler Biadasz, Michael Dieter, and David Edwards power a massive and thundering offensive line. All four are Outland Trophy candidates. Just for good measure Kicker Rafael Gaglionne and punter Anthony Lotti are candidates for national awards as well.
Key Trends
Western Kentucky has been a poor betting value as a road dog as evidenced by their mark of 3-8 against the spread in that situation. Just two of their last seven as road dogs have gone over the total. Additionally, the Hilltoppers have dropped four of their last six as double-digit road dogs with four of their last six in that position going over the total.
Wisconsin has lost just three of their last nine against the spread as a home favorite. Six of those nine games also went over the total. As a home favorite of 21 or more points Bucky Badger has paid in three of their last four with three of those four games also going over the total.
Free ATS Pick
This is not a good way for Sanford and Western Kentucky to begin their quest for redemption. In fact, it may get real ugly real fast. Even if the Badgers are slightly off their game they should still rumble to clearing the spread without much difficulty.
College Football Odds: Wisconsin 49, Western Kentucky 10
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