Fading the public was a profitable endeavor last week. The three plays I selected went 2-1 with Georgia Southern winning by 20 points as an 8.5-point home underdog and Vanderbilt easily covering the short NCAAF betting line against Arkansas. The lone loss was Florida failing to cover the seven points against Georgia, but that game was close until the fourth quarter. That was my first winning week since early October with Fade the Public Plays, and I’m aiming to build off that momentum.
East Carolina +13 vs. Memphis
The Tigers are one of those teams that the advanced numbers have loved all year long. Despite being 4-4, Memphis is ranked 36th in the nation according to S&P+, putting them ahead of 7-1 AAC teams like Cincinnati and South Florida and 6-2 Texas.
Memphis has one of the best offenses in the country too. Darrell Henderson has been incredible when he has been healthy, averaging more than 10 yards a carry, and Brady White has been very effective through the air too.
In spite of all of that, I’m going against the Tigers this week. The CFB betting odds opened with Memphis as a 13.5-point road favorite against East Carolina, and the public clamored to bet the Tigers. Three-quarters of bets came in on Memphis, yet the line moved down to an even 13.
That’s likely due to sharps going against the Tigers due to their shoddy defense. Memphis has given up 40 points to Tulane and 65 points to Missouri over their last four games, and the Tigers had a hard time stopping UCF in the second half too despite a driving rainstorm that made it difficult for offenses to succeed. East Carolina has one of the more underrated defenses in the country, and the Pirates can keep it close.
South Alabama +16 at Arkansas State
If you follow the Sun Belt, you’re probably pretty down on South Alabama right now. The Jaguars have been blasted by their last three Sun Belt foes, and the public has noticed. Over 70 percent of bets placed on this one have come in on the Red Wolves, and yet the line has dropped. Arkansas State was originally a 17-point favorite, but the CFB betting line has moved down a point.
The schedule-makers did South Alabama no favors with how they distributed its conference slate. The Jaguars were forced to face the three best teams in the Sun Belt in consecutive conference games, so it’s no surprise they looked awful against Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, and Troy. South Alabama is a team that has looked good at times this season though. The Jaguars narrowly lost to Louisiana Tech in their season opener, and they gave Memphis a run for their money too.
This line is somewhat a reflection of what we saw from Arkansas State last year too. The Red Wolves were pretty solid throughout 2017, but they are just 4-4 this season and they don’t have an FBS win of 17 points or more to their name. They have had less time off than South Alabama too coming into this one, so the Jaguars should keep it within the number.
SMU +13.5 vs. Houston
What have you done for me lately? Houston vaulted into the Top 25 by hammering a previously undefeated South Florida team, and now people are sky high on the Cougars. They are ignoring the fact that USF was a very flawed undefeated team that had played the second-easiest schedule in the country prior to last week, and instead they are just looking at the box score of the victory.
That’s a big mistake, and as of now almost three-quarters of bets have been on the side of Houston. However, SMU seems to have turned a corner under Sonny Dykes after a dreadful start to the season and they knocked off Tulane on the road two weeks ago and took Cincinnati to overtime last week.
Ed Oliver is expected to be back in the lineup, but his knee injury is likely to limit his snaps, and I think SMU might be able to win a shootout here.
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