Once again, last week’s Fade the Public Plays did not turn out so hot. My two ACC plays were a disaster, with Louisville getting its doors blown off by Syracuse and Virginia Tech getting crushed by Pittsburgh. UCLA was my one winner, and the Bruins nearly picked up an outright win over Arizona State. This week, I’m looking to post my first winning week in a while, but I’m running out of time before the regular season comes to a close.
Wake Forest +7 vs. Pittsburgh
Call me crazy, but Pittsburgh just isn’t that good of a team. The Panthers have been on a fantastic ride, and you have to give the offense credit for blasting Duke and Virginia Tech in the last few weeks, but this is a side that is in the middle of the pack in S&P.
The Panthers have been much better at home than they have been on the road this season. Pittsburgh has averaged 23.5 PPG away from home and has a record of 1-3 in road games, but at home the Panthers are averaging 35.5 PPG and have a 5-1 mark.
Pittsburgh’s profile has risen as the program has emerged as the team most likely to win the ACC Coastal, but the Panthers should not be a seven-point road favorite. Wake Forest has a pretty good offense, and the Demon Deacons were able to ride Jamie Newman to an upset win over NC State in Raleigh last week. Over 70 percent of the action has come in on Pitt, but I’ll back Wake Forest on the CFB betting line here.
Minnesota +2.5 vs. Northwestern
The Golden Gophers have been a rather puzzling team to try to figure out. Minnesota is 5-5 on the year, but they have pulled off some pretty impressive wins. PJ Fleck got his team to row the boat in a victory over Fresno State in non-conference play back in September, and last week they surprised everyone with a big 41-10 win over Purdue.
Northwestern has been very fortunate this year. The Big Ten West winners came out of nowhere to win their division after going 0-3 in non-conference play, and nobody saw that coming after the Wildcats lost to Akron. However, it’s largely been smoke and mirrors for the Wildcats. Their fans will say they should have beat Michigan, but they easily could have lost to Purdue, Rutgers, Nebraska, and Iowa.
S&P+ thinks this is one of the biggest mismatches of the week. Minnesota is ranked 53rd in the country according to the metric, while Northwestern is ranked 77th in the country. Of course, bettors have been all over the Wildcats too, as the division title has bolstered their resume in the eyes of many. A whopping 73 percent of bets have come in on Northwestern, but the fact that the NCAAF betting odds have moved in favor of Minnesota tells you all you need to know.
San Diego State +13.5 at Fresno State
Fresno State was in a good position to possibly pick up the Group of Five spot for a New Year’s Day Bowl (provided UCF slipped up) until last week’s loss on the blue turf to Boise State. Now, the Bulldogs are just looking to hang on to win the MWC West Division against a San Diego State team that has been a perennial contender for the title under Rocky Long.
The Aztecs have been decimated by injuries this year. Veteran quarterback Christian Chapman and running back Juwan Washington missed significant parts of the season, but both players are back in action and that is a significant boost to their chances.
Last week, SDSU laid an egg at home against UNLV, but I believe that the Aztecs were merely looking ahead to this game. I see this one being a close, low scoring affair and the Aztecs have a real good chance to pull off the upset.
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