These Fade the Public Plays have not been working out well for me, or for anyone following them. Instead, the public has been cashing ticket after ticket over the last month or so, and that has not been a good thing for this premise. The Week 12 Fade the Public Plays ended up going 1-2, with Pittsburgh and Northwestern easily covering to go against me. However, all of the CFB betting line movement was in my favor, as Wake Forest closed as a 5.5-point underdog and Minnesota ended as the betting favorite. My one win saw the line move in my favor too, as I nabbed San Diego State as a 13.5-point underdog against Fresno State and the line closed at 10 flat. This is the last week of the regular season, so let’s go out with a bang.
NCAA Football Betting at BookMaker.eu
Kansas +15 vs. Texas
It would be pretty easy for Texas to overlook Kansas this week. The Longhorns know that a win here puts them in the Big 12 Championship Game against either Oklahoma or West Virginia, and there are certainly some people looking forward to those potential rematches. Texas has not won the Big 12 title since 2009, and that title drought is one of the longest in school history.
This is the most competitive Kansas team we have seen in a while though. The Jayhawks have been one of the worst teams in college football over the last decade, but they have already won three games this year and they played both Kansas State and Oklahoma tough over the last two weeks. The quarterback play has been very good, with Kansas quarterbacks throwing 17 touchdowns to just three interceptions, and the defense has been better than expected.
Two-thirds of the betting public don’t think that Kansas will stay within the number even though the Jayhawks knocked off the Longhorns the last time they met in Lawrence. That is very unlikely to happen again, but Kansas is decent enough to keep it within the number.
Arkansas +23 at Missouri
Chad Morris is rebuilding Arkansas from the ground up. The Razorbacks will need time to transition from a power running team under Bret Bielema to the wide-open up-tempo offense that Morris runs, but there have been some promising results already this season. Arkansas was able to keep it close with LSU and Texas A&M, and the Razorbacks scored 31 points on mighty Alabama.
I understand the reason why Missouri is such a big favorite here. Arkansas is seriously depleted in the secondary with Chevin Calloway out since late September, Nate Dalton and Derrick Munson no longer on the team, and Kamren Curl and Ryan Pulley suspended for the season finale after flirting with some Mississippi State cheerleaders prior to last week’s game.
This is a pretty big point spread to cover though, and Missouri doesn’t have a great defense. The Tigers have a good defensive line, but the back seven is iffy and Arkansas can put up some points here.
Baylor +6 vs. Texas Tech
The winner of this game will move to 6-6 and become bowl eligible, while the loser will drop to 5-7 on the year, so there is plenty at stake in this new rivalry.
For me, the key is the status of Texas Tech quarterback Alan Bowman. Bowman has been fantastic when he has been healthy this season. The problem is he has dealt with two different injuries, and the most recent one is pretty concerning. Bowman suffered a collapsed lung a few weeks ago, and Kliff Kingsbury might not want to jeopardize his young quarterback’s future.
If Bowman doesn’t play, no one is really sure who will start at quarterback for Texas Tech. Jett Duffy and McLane Carter have been battling injuries too, and the only other quarterback on the roster has been the lightly used Colt Garrett.
Baylor has been decent this year as Matt Rhule continues to turn the program around. The Bears have been able to move the ball in Rhule’s pro-style system, and the Red Raiders defense is likely to give up a lot of yards to them.
NCAA Football Odds
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