The Week 13 Fade the Public Plays ended up cashing in. For the first time in weeks, my plays ended up being profitable, and I even hit a nice moneyline dog to boot. Baylor was a six-point favorite against Texas Tech this weekend, but the Bears won 35-24 to become bowl eligible. The Big 12 proved to be doubly good to me as Kansas covered the spread against Texas in David Beaty’s last game in Lawrence, but the SEC was not so kind. Arkansas never stood a chance of covering against Missouri and put a big goose egg on the board. That left my plays 2-1 for Week 13.
Memphis +3 at UCF
Earlier in the season, Memphis had UCF on the ropes and the Tigers should have dealt the Knights their first loss since 2016. The Tigers moved the ball on UCF’s defense all throughout the first half and took a 30-17 lead into halftime. However, a cold rain moved in early on in the second half, and it was the visitors that took advantage. Memphis made mistake after mistake on offense and ended up not scoring a single point in the second half, while UCF managed to get two touchdowns and hold on for a 31-30 win.
Memphis fans left that game wanting a shot at revenge, and the Tigers ended up getting it. UCF can’t help but feel nervous about this game. Memphis gave UCF its toughest test of the season in October, and now the Knights must go into the rematch without star quarterback McKenzie Milton.
Milton suffered a serious leg injury against USF last week that is going to take a long time to recover from. Everyone’s thoughts and prayers are with Milton as more has come out about the severity of his injury, and it has thrust backup Darriel Mack Jr. into the spotlight. Mack has distinguished himself as a very gifted runner, but he has not been a good passing threat and the Tigers are going to roll their defenders forward to make Mack beat them. If he can’t, UCF is going to have a tough time getting the win.
Fresno State +2.5 at Boise State
Memphis isn’t the only team out for revenge for an earlier loss. Fresno State is still wondering what could have been if it had knocked off Boise State a few weeks ago. The Bulldogs were getting a lot of love from the national media, and they might have been poised to be ranked in the top 15. However, a loss to Boise State erased a lot of that momentum and put the MWC Championship Game in Boise and not Fresno.
The public does not think highly of Fresno State in the rematch, with just 37 percent of bets coming in on the Bulldogs. However, the advanced metrics believe that Fresno State has a great chance to win the MWC as Fresno State is ranked significantly higher in S&P+ and other ratings.
Utah +5 vs. Washington
Everyone is back on the Washington bandwagon after the Huskies hammered the Cougars in the Apple Cup. The win gave Washington the PAC 12 North title again, as they flummoxed Wazzou’s passing game all day. However, it’s clear to me that the Huskies are just a philosophical mismatch for the Cougars. Washington has shut down Mike Leach’s offense every year since Chris Petersen came to campus.
Once again, this is another rematch of a regular season meeting. Washington and Utah met in Salt Lake City earlier in the year, and the Huskies pulled out a 21-7 victory. That has much of the public wondering why Washington is less than a touchdown favorite, and public money has since come in on the favorites.
This is a different Utah team from what we saw earlier in the season though. The Utes have been much more stout on defense, and they have overcome the loss of their best running back and quarterback with a flourish. Washington still has major questions on offense, and Utah could make this game ugly.
NCAA Football Odds
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