The Fresno State Bulldogs are no strangers to picking off Power Five opponents. During the Pat Hill years, Fresno State’s bread and butter was getting paid to come into your stadium to beat you, and Jeff Tedford has brought that mentality back. The program has come a long way under Tedford in a short amount of time, and that’s why the Minnesota Golden Gophers are on upset alert in Week 2 of the college football season.
Minnesota actually trailed New Mexico State in the second quarter for a bit before pulling away to take a 35-10 lead into halftime en route to a cover per the CFB betting odds. The Golden Gophers can’t afford to stumble out of the gate against a Fresno State squad that hammered former FBS side Idaho 79-13 in their opener.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 2 game is set for Saturday, September 8, 2018, at 7:30 p.m. ET at TCF Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Fresno State +2.5
Minnesota -2.5
Over/Under 48
Odds Analysis
The oddsmakers must have nailed the spread and total in this game, because we have seen little college football betting action either way late in the week. Minnesota opened as a two-point favorite on the NCAAF betting line, and that has inched up by just a half-point. The total has remained flat though, staying steady at 48 throughout the week.
Matchup to Watch
Minnesota has to be able to run the ball effectively against Fresno State’s front four to avoid the upset. The Golden Gophers eventually got their feet under them against New Mexico State last week, but it took some for the run game to get going. Minnesota averaged over six yards per carry and racked up 295 yards and three touchdowns on the ground, and while they won’t match those numbers, they could have a good day.
This offensive line returns four of its five starters from last year, and P.J. Fleck has recruited the position well. Two members of the interior line started as freshman last season, and they should be much better as sophomores.
Fresno State did a good job of stopping the run against Idaho last week, but the Bulldogs were greatly aided by seven turnovers. This is a very young defensive line though, and we still don’t know just how good they are. All four starters along the front are newcomers, and the defensive ends are a bit light.
Player to Watch
Fleck has continued to rebuild this team from the ground up with his guys, so it wasn’t too much of a surprise that he chose true freshman Zack Annexstad to start the season opener. Last season’s starters Demry Croft and Conor Rhoda didn’t inspire much confidence, and that made the decision easy for Fleck to choose one of his new recruits to lead the charge.
Annexstad looked a bit shaky at times, but that’s expected for a freshman. He completed a tad under 50 percent of his passes, yet he made some big throws when called upon and gained confidence as the game went on. Minnesota would love to take the air out of the ball and keep it on the ground with a true freshman under center, as Annexstad might have some trouble against a very good Fresno State secondary.
Free ATS Pick
Although the spread is close in this one, I get the feeling that the final will see one of these teams winning by double digits. It all comes down to whether or not Minnesota can run the ball. If the Golden Gophers can get it done and churn out important yards on the ground, they should win handily. If they don’t, it’s going to be a long afternoon for the true freshman and Fresno State will get a big win. I’ll put my faith in Fleck, but the better play is a pleaser here.
College Football Odds: Minnesota 30, Fresno State 20
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