Week Two opens on Friday night with a perennial Big 12 Conference title contender against a Group of Five team coming off its first bowl in five years but with a history that shows the inability to sustain success. The TCU Horned Frogs are always in the hunt to win the Big 12 and are expected to be a Top 25 team yet again. Known for strong defenses the Frogs must break in a new quarterback for 2018. The SMU Mustangs are known for their ability to score but also for an inability to even field a mediocre defense. And with new head coach Sonny Dykes that impression is hardly going to change.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 2 game is set for Friday, September 7, 2018, at 8 p.m. ET at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. This matchup can be viewed on ESPN2.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
TCU -21.5
SMU +21.5
Over/Under (Check Back Later)
Odds Analysis
This matchup opened with TCU as a 19.5-point favorite with quick early money mostly going against SMU based on their poor opening game performance. Add the fact that TCU is a respected Power Five school compared to the perpetual struggles of SMU to stay relative and competitive as a Group of Five school and the line movement is easy to understand.
Not a Sonny Opener for SMU
SMU is coming off a really bad 46-23-week one loss at North Texas in which they were nowhere near covering as 3.5-point dogs. North Texas exploded out of the gate to take a 36-0 lead before SMU put up 23 fourth quarter points during garbage time. SMU was outgained 529-256 and North Texas held a 34-9 first down advantage. While everyone figured the Mustangs would have a poor defense what was most stunning was their lack of offensive output. None of this bodes well for Dykes in his first year at the helm.
Frogs Feast on Cupcake
TCU coasted to a 55-7 home win over 1AA Southern in their debut game. The Horned Frogs outgained Southern 499-185. Quarterback Shawn Robinson was 17/24 for 182 yards and three touchdowns. In sum, TCU did what they were supposed to do and looked good doing it. But its still hard to get a real read on their ability against such a week opponent.
Key Trends
TCU has been a reliable road chalk with five payouts in their last eight games in that role. The Horned Frogs have gone under the total in seven of those eight games laying points on the road.
SMU has been a terrible betting value as a home dog with just five payouts in their last 16 games in that role. Five of their last six as home dogs have gone under the total.
Head to Head
These teams have met annually since 2007. TCU has come away with the money in three of the last five meetings. Four of those five games went under the total. The Horned Frogs have had their best wagering value as the road team in this series. In fact, TCU has come away with the cash in their last two visits to SMU.
Coaching Angle
Sonny Dykes was always an odd fit at California where he fielded half a team. His Golden Bears had some of the most prolific passing numbers in the country but failed to build a defense.
Gary Patterson has been one of the most underrated head coaches in the country despite his great success at TCU. His record there is 161-57 and he made the program good enough to be promoted to the Power Five out of the Mountain West Conference. Since 2008 his Horned Frogs finished in the top ten six times.
Free ATS Pick
It looks like Dykes once again has a defenseless team. Based on last week TCU should have enough weaponry to fully exploit the Mustangs to get the money.
College Football Odds: TCU 49, SMU 24
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