Week Two pits a questionable and overmatched New Mexico Lobos team against the mauling power of the Big Ten West. The Wisconsin Badgers are picked by many to make the College Football Playoff and last week only served to reinforce those lofty expectations. With the best and most experienced offensive line in the country Wisconsin should curb stomp the Lobos. The only question is whether or not this is an overlay. As last week demonstrated the Badgers can dominate while still not quite being able to get the money.
This matchup in Week 2 will take place on Saturday, September 1, 2018, at 12 p.m. ET at Camp Randall Stadium. Big Ten Network is providing the telecast of this game.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
New Mexico +34.5
Wisconsin -34.5
Over/Under (Check Back Later)
Odds Analysis
Wisconsin opened as a 34.5-point favorite which seems to be right on the money as the public is yet to move the number. Wisconsin is a top five team touted as playoff material and well respected for their 13-1 season last year. New Mexico is coming off a terrible year and is not expected to matchup physically against the Badgers.
Key Trends
Wisconsin has covered the spread in three of their last five games at Camp Randall Stadium when laying 20 or more points. Three of those five games also went over the total.
New Mexico has been subpar as a road dog of 20 or more points with just four payouts in their last 10 games in that role. Five of their last six in that situation have gone under the total.
Wisky Wins Big but Loses Too
Wisconsin was impressive in their season opening 34-3 win over Western Kentucky. But while the Badgers were dominant they failed to get the money as 36.5-point chalks. UW held a 24-15 first down advantage and had a 34:03 time of possession. Quarterback Alex Hornibrook was a workmanlike 17/29 with 257 yards passing and two touchdowns. Heisman Trophy candidate Jonathan Taylor ran for 145 yards on 18 carries with two TD’s.
Lobos Fest on Creampuff
New Mexico opened their season with a 63-30 home win over 1AA Incarnate Word. The Lobos 680 yards of total offense did impress but their 566 yards allowed did not. Quarterback Tevaka Tuioti threw for 327 yards and four touchdowns.
Matchup to Watch
New Mexico’s bad defensive numbers against a 1AA team do not bode well for their matchup against Wisconsin. The Badgers have the deepest, biggest, best, and most experienced offensive line in the country with multiple All-American candidates. Jonathan Taylor should easily clear 200 yards rushing if head coach Paul Chryst choses to leave him in the game long enough. Furthermore, Badgers QB Alex Hornibrook has never looked better and is playing with polish and the confidence of a three-year veteran starter.
Coaching Angle
Bob Davie is a former Notre Dame coach that went 35-25 under the Golden Dome. He took over at New Mexico in 2012 and methodically built the program up to respectability with back to back bowl appearances in 2015 and 2016. In fact, the Lobos went 9-4 and won the Mountain Division of the Mountain West Conference in 2016. But player abuse allegations last year curbed Davie’s style and success.
Paul Chryst is a Wisconsin alum and former Badgers quarterback. In his fourth season he has proven to be the perfect fit. Last year he led UW to their greatest record in program history. Chryst has also recruited at a level never before seen in Madison. The Badgers future looks even better than their promising present. Just as important Chryst has re-established UW as “O-Line U.”
Free ATS Pick
New Mexico is totally outmanned here and is likely going to be rendered defenseless. Good teams make their biggest improvement in week two. Wisconsin should roll and get the money.
College Football Odds: Wisconsin 48, New Mexico 10
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